The World Bank says commodity prices that reached historically elevated levels because of the war in Ukraine will remain high through the end of 2024.
The agency’s commodity markets outlook report released Tuesday said energy prices, food and fertilizer have sustained the largest commodity shock since the 1970s.
Energy prices, which over the past two years have sustained the biggest increases since the 1973 oil crisis, are expected to rise more than 50% in 2022 before easing in 2023 and 2024.
Non-energy prices, including agriculture and metals, are projected to increase almost 20% in 2022 and will also moderate in the following years.
Nevertheless, commodity prices are expected to remain well above the most recent five-year average.
The World Bank adds that a prolonged war or additional sanctions on Russia could boost prices even higher and make them more volatile than currently projected.
“Overall, this amounts to the largest commodity shock we’ve experienced since the 1970s,” stated Indermit Gill, the World Bank’s vice-president for equitable growth, finance and institutions.
“As was the case then, the shock is being aggravated by a surge in restrictions in trade of food, fuel and fertilizers.”