(August 11 – 17:15 ET) – After a quiet couple of weeks there’s a fairly heavy slate of economic news due next week, with the August rate decision from the U.S. Federal Reserve Board scheduled for the week after.
The week starts lightly enough, although the Democratic Convention begins in Los Angeles on Monday. In the U.S., capacity utilization and industrial production numbers are out on Tuesday. But things really get going on Wednesday with the CPI reports out in the U.S., along with housing data.
These numbers will be the last chance before the August meeting to convince the Fed to raise rates, no one is expecting that it will though. CIBC World Markets says, “The results will not alter the view of the Fed being on hold, as both the year-over-year rates of headline and core inflation are expected to move lower in July.” BMO Nesbitt Burns and Merrill Lynch agree.
Also on Wednesday, the Bank of Canada will issue an update to the Monetary Policy Report, although this is expected to be dovish, too. CIBC expects it to forecast accelerating inflation. Manufacturing shipments and wage settlements in Canada are also due on Wednesday, and Thursday brings the release of Canadian CPI numbers. Economists expect a tame reading. RBC DS is probably the most dovish, suggesting that recent results should indicate an easing in rates, a thought that hasn’t been contemplated for months by many traders. It concedes that an easing is unlikely this year though.
On Friday, both Canada and the U.S. release international trade data.
U.S. retailers dominate the earnings front next week. In Canada, Manulife Financial is expected on Tuesday and Seagram is slated for Wednesday or Thursday, along with Dundee Bancorp and Guardian Capital.
-IE Staff