Most of the economic data will come from Canada next week, with a load of Fedspeak all that’s due to come out of the U.S. Markets will probably be looking elsewhere for direction.
RBC Capital Markets notes that the coming week’s data releases in Canada include February building permits on Wednesday, and the “all-important March labour force survey” on Friday. Also on Friday, March housing starts are scheduled for release. The Bank of Canada’s business outlook survey launches the week on Monday though.
“Employment kicks off the economic news on March, and we’re looking for a modest gain after a sturdier February reading,” says CIBC World Markets. “The monthly data have a huge random error component, so of greater interest are the three and six month trends, and, in particular, whether the downtrend in factory employment continues.
“Canadian job growth is expected to simmer down in March after a surprisingly snappy increase of 26,600 in the prior month,” confirms BMO Nesbitt Burns. It’s looking for employment to rise by 14,000.
“Manufacturing payrolls have been a notable weak spot, and are likely to remain so as factories continue to adjust to the new world order of a plus-80¢ Canadian dollar. As well, construction activity may have been held back by the interminable winter,” Nesbitt says. “It’s also possible that the collapse of JetsGo (on March 11) may have dinged the figures for transportation payrolls. Offsetting these setbacks, we look for some recovery in utilities, public administration, and health care from recent weakness.” Nesbitt also expects the unemployment rate to remain steady at 7.0%.
As for housing market activity, BMO Nesbitt says that housing starts are expected to nudge up to 220,000 units from 214,900 in the prior month and 204,000 in January. And, it notes that the Bank’s outlook survey will be watched for its measure of spare capacity. However, CIBC notes that the survey usually fails to capture much market interest.
In the U.S., there are no major economic releases due. Instead, RBC suggests markets will likely focus on the dollar, oil prices and general market developments.
The week’s releases include such second-tier numbers as weekly chain store sales and the March ISM non-manufacturing index on Tuesday, weekly jobless claims and February wholesale trade on Thursday and the leading economic indicator on Friday.
Bigger news may come from Fed chairman Greenspan, who has speaking engagements on Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday, and other Fed governors are on the rubber chicken circuit too. Although, CIBC notes that Greenspan’s speeches look to be on topics that range far afield from monetary policy.
“Thursday’s jobless claims, which ticked up sharply last week, could catch notice, with the market now wondering just how strong the employment trend really is,” CIBC suggests.
BMO Nesbitt counters that March chain store sales could be the most interesting number of the week. “Although gasoline prices are once again behaving badly, an early Easter and decent growth in personal tax refunds have provided sufficient offsets, at least for the time being. As these supporting forces subside, and should gasoline prices remain high, chain store sales will likely suffer again,” it predicts.
The earnings schedule is also fairly light this week. Research in Motion reports on Tuesday. CI Fund Management and Laidlaw International are due on Wednesday. CanWest Global Communications reports on Thursday, and Loris Therapeutics reports on Friday.
Week ahead: Labour-force survey leads busy week in Canada
- By: James Langton
- April 4, 2005 April 4, 2005
- 07:40