With the ballots from the Nov. 2 U.S. election in and counted and a clear victor declared, markets can now turn their attention to hard and fast economic numbers, and what better number to look forward to this week than interest rates?

In fact, Wednesday’s rate announcement by the Federal Reserve Board’s Federal Open Market Committee is one of the few pieces of economic data in what is a light week for news on either side of the border.

This week’s numbers include housing starts and merchandise trade data in Canada and retail sales and business inventories in the U.S. But the most-watched event will be what the Fed does.

Even then, most economists think there will be no surprises, that Fed chairman Alan Greenspan will continue to hike interest rates. If there was any doubt, Friday’s release of data showing huge job gains in the U.S. in October sealed the deal. Look for another 25 basis point increase on Wednesday.

“To continue to hike interest rates, the Fed Chairman needs to show more than just the fact that rates are historically low,” says Avery Shenfeld, senior economist, with CIBC World Markets. “After all, it might well be that the U.S. economy needs that leg up, as it clearly did in 2001-03. Pressing on with rate hikes will only be justified in an economy that would otherwise risk overheating. And key to that judgment is evidence that job gains are hefty enough to allow consumers to keep spending merrily away, even as they lose the support of record low borrowing costs.”

Whether Greenspan will hike rates again in December is another question. Before that happens, say economists, the U.S. economy will have to show more signs of life than just the 300,000 jobs created in October. Still, the job creation numbers, even if boosted by cleanup and reconstruction efforts in the hurricane-affected areas of the U.S. southeast, are a start.

“The Fed was already on track to raise rates 25 bps at next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, but the strength of today’s report casts some doubt on the widely held view of a December meeting pause,” says BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. in a report.

Shenfeld is in the camp of those betting on another jump in December. “Nervous markets might price in more after that, but let’s wait until we see how growth and employment bear up under Q4’s energy price drag before concluding that the Fed has more work to do in 2005,” he says in a report.

On a more immediate note, this week’s main number for Canada also will come on Wednesday with the release of the merchandise trade numbers for September. The consensus call is that September’s surplus won’t be as high as the $7.4 billion rung up in August. But still it should come in at between $6.8 billion and $7 billion. CIBC’s Warren Lovely is in the more bullish camp.

“September ushered in another massive trade surplus, with the positive balance on merchandise trade likely standing at a full $7 billion—about half a billion lighter than the prior month,” Lovely says.

“Exports have exhibited signs of fading momentum, and given declining industrial prices (reflective of an appreciating $), nominal shipments could again struggle in September. Every major import category slumped in August, and a partial recovery here would also be consistent with a smaller monthly surplus.”

The other major Canadian release comes on Monday with housing starts for October. Look for construction activity to remain brisk — about 227,000 starts for the month – although down about 5% from September.

In the U.S., the other key number is retail sales for October. The market is calling for a relatively tame 0.1% (0.5% ex-autos), down from 1.5% gain (0.6% ex-autos) jump in September.

“September’s outsized retail gain meant Q3 consumer spending went out like a lion, but Q4 should come in like a lamb with only a 0.1% rise in October retail sales,” says CIBC economist Leslie Preston. “Unit auto sales continued their well-established seesaw pattern, giving back a fair share of September’s jump, and should weigh heavily on headline retail sales. Vehicle sales had renewed vigor in Q3, but with consumer-spending power sapped by higher gasoline prices and reduced incentives by automakers, purchases in Q4 look weak.”

Other U.S. releases include the Michigan sentiment index, the closely watched consumer confidence measure, for November and business inventories for September; both are out on Friday.