The grudging return to serious economy watching continues next week with a solid lineup of data releases on both sides of the border. However, none of the data is expected to be big news by itself.

In Canada, CIBC World Markets says that consumer prices will remain a key focal point, with the CPI due out on Friday. Auto sales come on Tuesday, manufacturing shipments numbers come on Wednesday, and Thursday brings international securities transactions data. The leading indicator is also out on Friday.

“While rate decisions are really more linked to the forecast of core CPI a year or so ahead, a second straight month near the [Bank of Canada]’s target will cement expectations for an October quarter point hike,” CIBC predicts. “The export data point to a slight decline in factory shipments in July, but that comes after some impressive monthly gains, which will take the focus off a small give-back.”

BMO Nesbitt Burns expects headline CPI to rise a modest 0.1% for August, which will trim the annual inflation rate to 2.1% from 2.3% in July, and the spring peak of 2.5%. And, it expects manufacturing shipments to drop 0.5%. “It’s a similar story for new orders, which have been even stronger than shipments, and have begun to lift the backlog of unfilled orders. After a strong run in the first half, we look for orders to hold steady in July.”

In the U.S., retail sales numbers lead off the week on Tuesday. Industrial production, capacity utilization and inventories data is out Wednesday. Thursday sees the CPI there too, and the Philly Fed index. The Michigan sentiment index is released on Friday.

“The expanding U.S. manufacturing sector will be a dominant theme in next week’s data,” claims BMO Nesbitt. It says that industrial production is expected to advance 0.4% in August, led by factory output, lifting the capacity utilization rate to 77.3% from 77.1% in July. And, business inventories are expected to rise 0.8% in July.

BMO Nesbitt also says that headline retail sales will likely decline 0.1%, up 0.3% ex autos. Consumer sentiment is expected to come in higher, and the CPI is expected to register a 0.1% hike for the headline and a 0.2% increase for the core.

CIBC suggests that soft retail sales for August will still leave real consumption on track for a significant quarter-over-quarter pick up, but it warns that the loss of momentum doesn’t bode well for the final quarter of the year. It notes that the industrial output has picked up, particularly excluding utilities, but a bit too much of that seems to be headed into inventories rather than sales.

“Keep an eye on jobless claims, where we will get a sense on whether the prior week’s big drop was merely noise from an imprecise seasonal adjustment process,” it says. But, none of these reports will materially alter expectations for a quarter point Fed hike the following week, it predicts.

The earnings schedule looks very light next week however. CHC Helicopter Corp. reports on Monday, followed by Intrawest and Transcontinental Inc. on Tuesday. Agricore United is slated for Thursday.