If there was any mystery about this week’s economic calendar, it was what the Bank of Canada was going to do on Tuesday about interest rates. But Friday’s unemployment report combined with the continuing strength of the Canadian dollar have, alas, left little doubt that BoC governor David Dodge will stand pat.

Statistics Canada dropped something of a bomb, reporting that Canadian employment rose by just 4,600 in November and that the unemployment rate had jumped to 7.3%. That compared to a consensus call of about 30,000 new jobs and an expected jobless rate of 7.1%, same as in October.

There was more discouraging news in the report as well —full-time employment fell by 25,300, only the second decline in the past year. Worse, hours worked were flat and the all the job gains last month were in the public sector or among self-employed workers.

As economists were quick to note, much of the blame for the drop in employment lay at the feet of the C$.

“The soaring loonie left its wingprints all over [Friday’s] report, as the main areas of weakness were manufacturing (-17,800) and the tourism sector, as hotels & restaurants shed 12,800 jobs,” said BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. chief economist Sherry Cooper.

The bottom line, as BMO likes to say, is that the report “is likely to cement the Bank of Canada’s decision to keep rates unchanged next week. While the employment figures are always volatile, there is some clear evidence that the surging Canadian dollar is finally beginning to make an impression on key export sectors.”

CIBC World Markets senior economist Avery Shenfeld was equally blunt about Tuesday’s rate announcement.

“A stand-pat decision by the Bank of Canada is a foregone conclusion,” Shenfeld said in a report. “Since the post-decision statement will have to name names (i.e.the Canadian dollar) as the culprit for the change in tone, there could be some negative consequences for the C$ as markets digest the text. At the same time, we doubt that the post-decision statement will step fully away from the notion that monetary accommodation might have to be reduced at some undefined point in the future, whatever that means.”

Whatever the BoC does, governor Dodge will get the chance to explain himself on Thursday when he speaks to a joint meeting of the Empire and Canadian clubs in Toronto.

So what does that leave for the week ahead? Not much: it is a light week for economic data on both sides of the border with few big moves expected.

In Canada, the key number to watch should be the housing starts for November. There are signs the housing boom is “looking a little tired,” CIBC notes. The consensus forecast is for 220,000 starts, down 2% from October, which, if correct, would be the third consecutive monthly decline.

“Fatigue has been evident in the market for existing homes, where seasonally adjusted resales have slipped an annualized 19% in the last six months and the sales-to-listings ratio sits at its lowest level since early 2001,” said CIBC economist Warren Lovely.

The housing forecast could be changed depending on what building permits data shows when it is released Monday morning. The data, for October, is expected to show a slight decline.

Also next week in Canada is the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index for November on Monday. The index measures month-to-month changes in dollars of purchases as indicated by a panel of purchasing managers from across the country. Look for it to be unchanged or a slight increase from the October level of 56.5.

The week ends with capacity utilization figures on Friday. The measure of manufacturing growth, which can be a critical gauge of the slack available in the economy, is expected to come in at 85% for the third quarter, up a tad from the 84.6% in Q2.

In the U.S., look for non-farm productivity report on Tuesday and the Michigan consumer sentiment survey and producer-price index, both on Friday.

The last one is the most important number. The producer price index for November is expected to be virtually unchanged at 1.7% or 1.9%, which would mean a yearly figure of 4.5%, a slight increase over last year.

As CIBC notes. the U.S. Federal Reserve Board is more interested in what consumer price inflation does than the PPI. “But a cooling PPI in November would demonstrate the inability of producers to pass higher raw materials prices down the supply chain in an economy with still-considerable economic slack,” says the CIBC’s Leslie Preston. “We expect the Fed to take a pause after its December hike as core CPI inflation levels off near 2% and the pace of economic growth looks unthreatening to its price stability objectives.”