It’s a relatively quiet week in Canada, economically speaking, which is just as well since all eyes on both sides of the border (and just about everywhere else) will be fixated on Tuesday and the outcome of the U.S. election.

What a George Bush re-election or a John Kerry victory will mean for financial markets is an open question. Whichever way it goes, the market hopes the vote will be decisive.

Avery Shenfeld, senior economist with CIBC World Markets, says the implications of the election are anything but straightforward. A win for Kerry would not mean as much of a sea change as one might think, given that Bush’s Republicans hold a comfortable edge in the House and have a small majority in the Senate. That will make it difficult for Kerry to put many of his initiatives into action.

Congress might also have something to say about a Bush win and the huge budget deficit that his administration has produced, which may make further tax cuts a bad idea.

In the end there may not be much difference who wins.

“We expect gradual fiscal restraint to be imposed under either administration,” Shenfeld says in a report. “With a similar fiscal policy, monetary policy (under the helm of Greenspan for now) would also be unaffected, leaning to a very gradual tightening in the coming term.

“From a day-trader perspective, post-election day, stocks and the dollar will like a Bush win, and bonds will prefer a Kerry victory. None of these markets will be too happy if we are still counting ballots and filing lawsuits on November 3rd.”

There are no economic releases on Tuesday, meaning market watchers will be able to devote their full attention to the vote. In fact, there are no releases in Canada until late in the week.

First up for Canada are building permits for the month of September on Thursday.

The biggest release, however, will be the labour force survey for the month of October on Friday. The market is calling for creation of about 23,000 new jobs (down from 43,000 in September) and a steady rate of labour force participation that would hold the jobless rate at 7.1%. CIBC’s Warren Lovely is calling for only 15,000 new jobs — in line with the three-month average but a touch softer than the year-to-date average.

“Although an imperfect report — note the hefty confidence band around monthly job estimates — employment readings remain a key economic event for markets,” says Lovely. “But don ’t expect too much damage to the C$ or support for bonds from our slightly below consensus call, as it’s unlikely to deter the Bank from a December rate hike.”

It’s a busier week south of the border. Releases include personal income, personal consumption expenditures and construction spending for the month of September on Monday. Factory orders for September and auto sales for October come out on Wednesday. Weekly initial jobless are scheduled for Thursday, while the much-anticipated non-farm payroll report will be released on Friday.

On the last one, the market is calling for a 175,000 addition to non-farm payrolls in October, up from 96,000 in September, when tropical storms ravaged the U.S. south. CIBC is again below the consensus, calling for 150,000 new jobs, “a cruise-control gain that roughly matches the monthly growth in the size of the workforce, with the jobless rate holding steady at 5.4%.”

“High oil prices, and the absence of new tax cuts, mean that a 150K jobs/month gain is no longer sufficient to finance big consumer spending gains,” notes Shenfeld. “That should show up in much slower real consumption in Q4, a major reason why we see growth decelerating towards a 3% pace.”

Earnings season on Wall Street is winding down this week.

Of the 392 companies that had reported as of Friday afternoon, 64% have beat analyst expectations, 16% have matched and 20% have fallen short, according to Thomson First Call.

On Bay Street, however, earnings will continue to pour in this week.

Brookfield, Decoma, Magna Entertainment, and Talisman Energy report Monday.

On Tuesday, reports are scheduled for BCE Emergis, CGI Group and Kingsway Financial.

Wednesday will see BCE, Cinram, Canadian Natural Resources, Cascades, Dorel, and Shaw release earnings, as well as Time Warner and Qualcomm.

Thursday will be another heavy earnings day with Alcan, Brascan, Biovail, CAE, Enbridge, Four Seasons, MDC Partners, Manitoba Telecom, Manulife, and Petro-Canada reporting.