This week promises to be a quiet one, with the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday sending traders to the sidelines for much of the week.

In Canada, international transactions data is out on Monday. Industrial prices data is due Thursday. Friday will be the heavy data day, with third quarter GDP numbers being released, along with September GDP and the third quarter current account.

CIBC World Markets says that the first reading on third quarter activity should see Canada somewhat trail the revised U.S. figure. “Our call would also represent a bit of a disappointment to the Bank of Canada, which at last look was calling for a 4% quarterly pace.”

BMO Nesbitt Burns predicts that GDP will come in at 3.2%. “This is still slightly above the Bank of Canada’s estimate of potential growth for the economy of around 3%, but activity is expected to cool further in Q4 and the first half of next year.”

On the trade numbers, Nesbitt notes, “Canada’s merchandise trade surplus nudged higher in Q3 to a $56 billion annual rate from $54 billion in Q2. This, alongside solid tourism inflows, should help push up the broader current account surplus to a $20.7 billion annual pace in the quarter from the initial estimate of $19.6 billion in Q2.”

CIBC says, “A solid trade surplus will leave Canada well into the black for the current account in the same quarter, but to date the Canadian dollar hasn’t really traded off those figures. In all, none of the releases look likely to produce a big surprise relative to the market’s priors.”

In the U.S., Thanksgiving is on Thursday, meaning is markets will be closed then, but also Wednesday and Friday should both be very quiet. Before then, there will be the release of Q3 GDP numbers out on Tuesday, along with consumer confidence and new home sales. Wednesday will see the release of the Beige Book, personal income and spending, durable gods orders for October, and the Michigan consumer sentiment index.

“After the past week’s excitement, traders will be looking ahead to a quiet time before the Thanksgiving holiday,” predicts CIBC World Markets. “Data releases could provoke some reaction, but an improvement in the Conference Board’s measure of consumer attitudes is likely to be roughly offset by a disappointing durable goods orders release. Look for the Beige Book to provide further color on the current soft spot for the US economy. A backward looking glance at Q3 should see an upward revision to roughly 4% growth on the back of better-than-assumed figures for inventories and trade.”

Nesbitt reveals, “We are feeling a potentially dangerous buoyant lift in our confidence level of late as the data keep rolling in on the positive side for the U.S. Next week’s lead figure might be the GDP revision. We look for the estimate to be marked up to the 3.5%-to-4% zone, led by an upward restatement of inventories. ” It says that consumer confidence might rise as much as six points and then be echoed by the Michigan sentiment numbers. “Gone are the days of last month when we were concerned that a break in confidence would derail the promising economic recovery.”

Nesbitt also says that the market expects a large rise in October durable goods bookings after a 4.9% drop last month. “We are a little more cautious on that front, since we already know industrial production was weak. We are looking for only a tepid 0.3% bounce.” But, it says, “Judging from the tone of Fedspeak of late, the Beige Book might be more uplifting reading than we have grown accustomed to receiving.”

On the earnings front, Hudson’s Bay Co. reports on Monday, as does Metro Inc. Bank of Montreal leads off the the big week for the banks on Tuesday, followed up by reports from both CIBC and TD Bank on Wednesday. Forzani Group Ltd. reports on Friday.