A group of academics that unofficially calls the beginning and end of U.S. recessions says that the latest one officially ended in June 2009.

The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research said Monday that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy over a year ago, in June of last year. “The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion,” it declares, adding that, at 18 months, the recession was the country’s longest since World War II, outlasting the recessions of 1973-75 and 1981-82, both of which lasted 16 months.

Also, while the committee pinpointed a trough in June 2009, it did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favourable, or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity since then. Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month.

Additionally, the committee decided that any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in December 2007. The basis for this decision was the length and strength of the recovery to date.

Economic research firm IHS Global Insight says tha the committee’s decision should come as no surprise. “Most observers, including IHS Global Insight, have for some time assumed that the recession trough was in mid-2009,” it says, adding that it is not unusual for the committee to wait well over a year before making its determination of the business cycle trough.

“Our own outlook assigns a 25% probability to the double-dip outcome, but we view the most likely path as a continuing but painfully slow recovery,” IHS says.

IE