National Bank Financial Group says that the apparent momentum in the U.S. job market suggests that a strong payroll number should be on tap for Friday.

Friday’s U.S. payroll employment data is expected to “play a key role in shaping the outlook for U.S. interest rates,” NBF notes. “At this writing, the consensus is looking for a robust gain of 220,000 jobs in May.” However, NBF says that if this number surprises on the downside, it is possible that the market could even change its mind about the timing for a Fed rate hike.

Based on data going back to 1990, NBF says the probability of getting an increase of 0.16% or more in payrolls — the equivalent of at least 200,000 jobs — is only 43% (74 times out of 172 observations).

“However, it is important to keep in mind that there is a lot of persistence in the payroll data,” it notes. “Once the jobs locomotive gets going it does not stop dead in its tracks.” And, on that basis it points out that when preceded by two strong months, “the odds of a 200,000 increase in payrolls jump to 73%”.