As expected the U.S. Employment Report for November came in weak, showing companies shedded workers aggressively.
Employers dropped 331,000 workers in November, more than expected. October’s total was revised lower to just under 500,000. BMO Nesbitt Burns says that the trend shows little evidence of stopping, and its estimates suggest that 1 million more job cuts would be required to produce an actual rise in earnings next year that satisfies current equity market expectations.
CIBC World Markets notes that these results add up to the largest two-month job loss, and the greatest two-month unemployment rate increase since 1980. The jobless rate jumped to 5.7%.
The cuts hit all sectors apart from financial services, but there is plenty of anecdotal evidence on Wall Street that banker and brokers won’t be spared in the months ahead. Job declines were evenly split between services and goods producers. “This is not merely a factory recession as it was up until the summer,” says CIBC.
CIBC says the data is still consistent with its call for a 1.4% decline in Q4 GDP. “At a minimum, the Fed will cut a quarter point in December, and the odds of a 1.5% funds rate are rising. More importantly for bond markets and interest-sensitive equities, its going to be a very long wait for a return to rising overnight rates.” BMO agrees that the Fed should and will ease at the FOMC meeting on Tuesday.
BMO says that the consequences of these massive job reductions have been papered over by the tax rebate program, which has now faded. “It is possible to argue that additional fiscal stimulus, and more Fed easing, are needed just to offset the effects of the job cuts.” CIBC concludes, “to make this the mild, average duration recession that markets now expect, both the Fed and Congress are going to have to feed a lot of offsetting stimulus.”