Although the vast majority of economists are still expecting a classic economic activity rebound scenario during the post-Katrina period, National Bank Financial says it’s not so sure this is likely.

Typically economists explain that major storms unleash short-term economic damage, which is quickly recovered in future quarters due to rebuilding expenditures. “We do not want to tilt into the pessimists’ camp, but in our opinion, the current climate is far more complex than that of a typical hurricane. This time there are many more open questions,” NBF says in a new report.

“The increase in energy prices adds several elements of uncertainty just as U.S. households, – which now have negative savings rates, – are at their most vulnerable,” it notes.

“For a hurricane that in many ways has been characterized as atypical, the reaction among forecasters – who, as often is the case with these types of events, seem to be running in a pack – has been anything but,” it says. “At this stage, we do not completely endorse their forecasts.”

And, in a separate report, NBF notes that Hurricanes Katrina and Rita have highlighted the vulnerability of the U.S. refinery complex, “and the coming months are likely result in increased pressure to increase and/or relocate gasoline refinery capacity”.

“In our opinion, the current situation also highlights the dependence of Americans on autos as their sole mode of transportation. In other words, we are not so sure that just adding refinery capacity is a long-term solution for the American public,” it says, pointing out that although the United States accounts for only 5% of the global population, it is home to 30% of the world’s motor vehicle fleet, and is responsible for 44.3% of global gasoline consumption because of its preference for larger vehicles.

“We would not be surprised to see the debate shifts to alternative means of transportation in the coming months,” it suggests.