The latest news suggests that the U.S. economic outlook is dimming, says National Bank Financial.

“New information showing that Freddie Mac’s capital base is being eroded by surging default rates is a rather bearish development for the economy as it limits the options available to U.S. authorities to bail out the housing market,” the firm says in a research note.

“In our view the U.S. economic outlook has been further impaired, a prognostic that is being shared by the bond market,” it reports, noting that the spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasuries jumped to 96 basis points this morning.

“This development should not be taken lightly,” the firm warns. “The current steepening [of the yield curve] is reminiscent of the dynamic that took place at the onset of the two previous recessions.”

The market is clearly indicating that the U.S. central bank is behind the curve, NBF concludes.