The U.S. Conference Board reports today that the Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators was flat in February, following a revised 0.8% rise in January, and 1.3% increase in December.

The Conference Board announced that the U.S. leading index held steady, the coincident index increased by 0.2%, and the lagging index decreased by 0.3% in February. The leading index is still up 2.4% from its value six months ago in August 2001 and up 3.1% from its value a year ago.

It says that the modest gains in the coincident index appear to be gaining momentum. “Should this trend continue, the trough of the recession would most likely be November 2001, making the most recent economic contraction very short and certainly the mildest in U.S. history.”

“The U.S. economy has quickly turned from recession and is now firmly in recovery. But the road ahead is far from smooth, with sluggish profits and weak export demand restraining growth,” says Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein, “Still, growth is apparent in many key sectors. Consumer spending, representing two-thirds of all economic activity, is being bolstered by steady income gains and improving confidence. Low short-term interest rates and strong money supply growth are generating rising economic activity. Finally, energy prices, despite some recent strengthening, also remain low. We could see another pause in indicator growth over the next year, which would be suggestive of a slowing in recovery, but not a stifling of recovery.”