North American stock markets appear to be headed higher on Thursday morning as rising oil and metals prices are expected to bolster the resources-laden Toronto Stock Exchange while potentially positive economic reports in the U.S. could lead to a rise in the Dow Jones industrial average.
Oil prices rose above US$67 a barrel on early Thursday after a 3.5% decline on Wednesday; this was boosted by increased oil price forecasts from U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs.
As well, Shareholders in Petro-Canada and Suncor Energy Inc. are set to vote Thursday on the proposed merger of Canada’s two biggest energy firms. Separate votes are being held in Calgary. If the merger is accepted, it could provide a boost to the TSX as the merged company would be the second-largest firm trading on Canada’s senior stock exchange.
Additionally on Thursday, the Bank of Canada announced that it will leave the overnight rate unchanged at 0.25%.The BofC has also reiterated its conditional commitment to hold the current policy rate until the end of the second quarter of 2010.
In the U.S., investors are expected to react positively to news that fewer Americans filed claims for unemployment benefits last week, which may signal that the most acute job losses may be over. Initial jobless claims fell by 4,000 to 621,000 in the week ended May 30. The number of people collecting unemployment insurance fell for the first time in almost five months, breaking a string of 17 consecutive records.
Also, U.S. investors await sales reports from retailers; a 3.6% decline is expected for same-store figures for May, but it’s a sign that there’s less volatility than in the previous months, economists say.
Overseas, the European Central Bank has kept its main interest rate unchanged at a historic low of 1%.The ECB’s decision Thursday to keep its refinancing rate on hold was in line with expectations after the bank indicated in May that it did not intend to make further cuts in the near term.
Most Asian equities markets staged fell on Thursday, with resources stocks leading the decline after an overnight pullback in commodities prices. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Average stumbled 0.7% to 9668.96, posting its first decline in seven sessions. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost 2.1%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index and China’s Shanghai Composite slipped 0.4% each.
Conversely, European markets were mostly higher Thursday, with oil-related stocks leading the gains. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 gained 0.8% to 211.58. London’s FTSE gained 1% to 4427.66, the CAC-40 in Paris added 1.1% to 3345.52 and Frankfurt’s DAX rose 1.2% to 5116.85.
On Wednesday, the S&P/TSX composite index dropped 298.67 points, or 2.8%, to close at 10,290.12.
The junior S&P/TSX Venture composite index tumbled 3%, finishing at 1,107.96, down 33.78 points.
Meanwhile, a boost in the U.S. dollar sent the loonie down a sharp US2.29¢, to close at US90.22¢.
In New York, U.S. stocks also retreated as U.S. Federal Reserve Board chairman Ben Bernanke revealed expectations that lower economic growth may persist for some time — and that longer-term fiscal challenges lie ahead.
The Dow Jones industrial average shed 65.63, or 0.8%, to end at 8,675.24.
The S&P 500 index fell 12.98 points, or 1.4%, to close at 931.76.
The Nasdaq composite index fell 10.88 points, or 0.6%, to 1,825.92.
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