Economic research firm, Global Insight Inc., says it looks unlikely that Tuesday night’s Throne Speech will be enough, by itself, to trigger an election.

The firm notes that Prime Minister Stephen Harper used the speech to underline his centrist agenda and bolster support ahead of the next election, which may come before the year is out. “Despite his government being in a minority, Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper is currently in a position of strength compared to the Liberals and is keen to hammer home his advantage,” it says.

“There is a reasonable chance that Canadians will head to the polls before the year is out, but it seems the Conservatives will have to goad the Liberals with more controversial legislation before they crack,” it predicts.

Global Insight notes that the speech was short on specifics, but Harper made it clear that he intends to build on his existing strategy rather than taking new tacks, including broad tax cuts, tough anti-crime measures, an extended mission in Afghanistan, and action on climate change.

In terms of tax cuts, it notes that the government remains committed to its plan to cut the GST from 6% to 5%. “Additional tax relief was pledged, targeting families and businesses, but no details were given. These specifics will either come in the election manifesto or in next year’s budget,”it says. “Whether more broad-based tax cuts favouring all individuals are on the agenda remains the subject of debate.”

Also, it says that the speech stresses the government’s commitment to reducing carbon emissions and the establishment of an emissions-trading market. “Harper has lately become more open to such measures, but he is still cool on the Kyoto Protocol and its potential successor,” it adds. “Harper has essentially adopted a position close to that of the U.S. administration.”

The firm concludes that it looks unlikely that the Throne Speech will trigger a no-confidence vote, “the Liberals choosing to bide their time and hope for a lift in the polls.”

“For the Conservatives, the speech has allowed them to underline and broaden what is a largely centrist agenda. Harper eschewed more contentious right-wing policies, choosing instead to disarm his opponents. There is still a reasonable chance that an election could be called before the year is out, but it will presumably be a different vote that would provide the trigger,” it says.

“The New Democrats and Bloc Québécois have been calling the Liberals ‘wimps’ for failing to bring down the Conservatives—such taunts will weigh on Dion, but it will presumably take some greater provocation from Harper before he snaps. Harper would naturally prefer to lead a majority government, but to date he has managed to govern with a minority more effectively than was originally expected,” it adds.