The economic calendar is light next week in Canada, but it will be heavy in the U.S., with Friday’s gross domestic product data likely getting plenty of attention on both sides of the border.
There are just three releases on the slate in Canada next week. Industrial prices are out Thursday, followed by GDP and a business conditions survey on Friday.
“May GDP is set for a weak reading, but not so weak as to be a surprise for the Bank of Canada,” says CIBC World Markets. “Its modest growth forecast for the quarter allowed for a soft month, we expect June to be a bit brighter, and so we would downplay the implications for short term rates or the Canadian dollar at this point.”
In the U.S., the schedule is much busier. Leading off, consumer confidence numbers are out Tuesday. Durable goods orders, home sales and the Fed’s Beige Book will be published Wednesday. Thursday is an off day for economics watchers, but Friday is a full one, with GDP data, the employment cost index, the Michigan Sentiment index and the Chicago purchasing managers index.
RBC Capital Markets says the big news is likely to be the advance second-quarter GDP — which will be released on Friday. Markets expect real GDP growth of 3.2% after 3.8% in the first quarter, it notes.
CIBC says the GDP number should be near consensus, “but the bond market might not like the strength of final demand”.
“A partial offset could come from tame readings on durable orders and employment costs, the latter helping to offset the recent cooling in productivity,” CIBC adds. “Markets will also be keeping a close eye beyond the world of economic reports, assessing Q2 earnings and keeping their ears tuned for any further developments out of London. Thus far, financial markets have for the most part taken the terrorist incidents there in stride.”
Indeed, there are a slew of earnings releases on tap in Canada next week.
On Monday, Fraser Papers Inc., Inco Ltd., Teck Cominco Ltd., TransAlta Power, West Fraser Timber Co. are all reporting.
Tuesday brings Bell Nordiq Income Fund, CP Railway, Enbridge Income Fund, Fairmont Hotels & Resorts Inc., Great Lakes Hydro Income Fund, Loblaws, Meridian Gold Inc., Rogers Communications Inc., Toromont, and TransCanada Power.
On Wednesday, Abitibi-Consolidated Inc., Agnico-Eagle Mines, Agrium Inc., Aliant, Domtar, Emera, CGI Group, Newmont Mining, Norske Skog, Placer Dome, Russel Metals, Suncor Energy, Thomson and Torstar report.
Barrick Gold leads off on Thursday, and will be joined by Bowater, EnCana, Fairfax Financial, International Forest Products, Maitoba Telecom, MacDonald, Dettwiler, Maple Leaf Foods, Northbridge Financial, Petro Canada, Potash, QLT, Sun Life, Tembec, Terasen, Talisman Energy, and WestJet Airlines.
Brookfield Properties, Canfor, Falconbridge, TransCanada, TVA and George Weston all report on Friday.