This week is packed with economic data once again, and important earnings news will be flowing, too.
“In case you rightly thought this week was packed with updates on the Canadian economy, next week will offer a repeat,” notes RBC Capital Markets. “There are four major releases to keep an eye upon. February auto sales kick off the stream of reports on Monday, followed by wholesale trade on Tuesday and retail sales on Thursday, both for the same month. On Friday, the March consumer price index is on tap.”
RBC notes that there are other releases also due out this week that won’t have a market impact but that are important to specific industries. Travel data between Canada and other countries during February are due out on Wednesday. For agricultural markets, the all-important 2005 spring planting intentions for field crops will be released on Thursday, it says.
“While all-item inflation for March could rise by two ticks due to higher energy prices, core inflation will be unchanged,” predicts CIBC World Markets. “Governor Dodge will appear before the house standing committee on finance but don’t expect anything more than what was already communicated by the Bank in the latest Monetary Policy Report. The political situation will remain the main focus with the dollar likely to be the main victim.”
BMO Nesbitt Burns also says it expects core prices to “keep their cool in March”. But, it’s looking for another robust reading on Canadian retail sales for February. “With exports rebounding in February and retail sales expected to remain robust, we look for wholesale trade to pop back with a 1% gain. These two reports will help solidify a relatively upbeat outlook for monthly GDP, and keep Q1 growth estimates of over 3% on track.”
CIBC says that in the U.S. the focus will be on the PPI and the CPI, which are out Tuesday and Wednesday respectively . “The headline numbers will look frightening due to surging energy prices. Core inflation, however, will be much more friendly,” it says. “We will continue to see a widening gap between core PPI and core CPI, reflecting the inability of firms to pass on price increases to consumers. So look for some volatility in the bond market: an upward pressure on yields following the PPI figures that will be reversed after the release of the CPI numbers.”
Also, housing data is out Tuesday, the Beige Book is due on Wednesday, and Fed chairman Greenspan speaks on Thursday. Housing starts and permits are both expected to dip in March, dampened by rising mortgages rates and wet weather, says BMO Nesbitt Burns.
Nesbitt notes that corporate earnings season is in full swing this week. “To date, just 12% of S&P 500 companies have reported, but that figure will jump to 40% by the end of this week,” it notes. “The Dow has 13 companies reporting.
On Monday, there will be 3M, followed by Coca-Cola, GM, Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer and Intel on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Altria, Honeywell, JP Morgan, SBC Communications and United Technologies report, with McDonald’s and Merck to follow on Thursday.”
In Canada, Husky Energy reports on Monday. On Tuesday, we hear from Inco. Wednesday brings CN, Hub Group, Nova Chemicals and Toromont Industries. On Thursday, Celestica reports, as does Falconbridge, Imperial Oil, Sears Canada, Sierra Wireless, Transalta and Weyerheuser.