The focus this week will be on Monday’s federal election and what effect that may have on the dollar, equities and bonds. Polls are suggesting that Conservative Leader Stephen Harper could win.

Stock markets could be affected by the proposed elimination of the capital gains tax by the Conservatives and the chance of bank mergers could also get back on the agenda.

Also Monday, Statistics Canada reports on retail sales in November. Economists expect an increase of 0.5% from the previous month.

On Tuesday, the Bank of Canada is widely expected to increase interest rates.

Economists expect the central bank to raise its key overnight rate by 0.25 of a percentage point to 3.5%.

On Thursday, the Bank of Canada releases its monetary policy report.

On Friday, Statistics Canada releases its business conditions survey for January.

South of the border

On Monday, the U.S. Conference Board reports on the leading indicators in December. Economists expect an increase of 0.2%.

On Wednesday, The U.S. National Association of Realtors reports on existing home sales for December. Economists expect annualized sales of 6,900,000 units.

On Thursday, the U.S. Commerce Department reports on durable goods orders in December. Economists expect an increase of 1%, following a 4.4% drop the previous month.

The U.S. Labor Department reports on initial jobless claims in the week ending Jan. 21. Economists expect 305,000 new claims.

On Friday, the U.S. Commerce Department releases final gross domestic product data for the fourth quarter. Economists expect an annualized rise of 2.8%.

Separately, Commerce reports on new home sales in December. Economists expect annualized sales of 1,230,000 units.

Earnings

This will be the busiest week of the fourth-quarter reporting season in the U.S., with 141 of the companies listed on the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index slated to release their results.