After this week’s heavy slate economic and earnings announcements, traders get a respite next week as the schedule lightens considerably.
Unless something interesting comes out of U.S. Federal Reserve Board chair Alan Greenspan’s participation in a central bank panel on Sunday, Tuesday will be the only day for economic news in the United States. Even then, the sole release concerns non-farm productivity numbers and factory orders.
BMO Nesbitt Burns expects productivity to be revised down to -0.7% from the previously released 0.1% decrease. “While this will likely lead to more stories about the end of the productivity miracle, instead the losses are temporary setbacks reflecting the slowdown in the U.S. economy and a return to more robust productivity advances can be expected when the economy rebounds.”
None of this is major, according to CIBC World Markets. It says, the data vacuum leaves markets blowing in the wind until there’s more clarity on the economic outlook. “June marks the three-month anniversary of the last wave of corporate earnings warnings, so stay tuned for another round of bad news if, as we expect, some CEO’s have to concede a longer wait for a profit rebound. Bad news on both factory orders and revised Q1 productivity won’t be much of a surprise for markets.”
In Canada, there are no economic releases until Wednesday, when building permit data is announced. Our version of the jobs report is out on Friday, along with housing starts data.
BMO Nesbitt Burns says, “We expect employment to moderate to its underlying trend in May, with payrolls posting a moderate 10,000 advance. Given continued solid labour force growth, this will not be enough to keep the jobless rate from ticking up another notch to 7.1%.” CIBC World Markets sees a similar move in the jobless rate.
BMO notes, “While the employment report is always crucial in Bank of Canada deliberations, policymakers will see another jobs report after this one before the next decision on interest rates on July 17.”
The other big event next week will be the British election, but with a landslide expected for Tony Blair and his Labour Party, it shouldn’t move the market much. Brits take to the polls on Thursday.
The earnings scene looks pretty quiet next week, too. Forzani Group Ltd. is slated to announce results on Tuesday. Mark’s Work Wearhouse has signed up for Wednesday, and the Canadian Western Bank is on deck for Thursday.
Other possible announcements will come from Vincor International Inc., Spectra Premium Industries Inc., Shermag Inc., Richelieu Hardware Ltd and Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc., but none of them have committed to set times.