After an exceptionally quiet week for both economic and earnings news, this week will bring plenty of both.
Monday looks relatively quiet, allowing traders to brace for the onslaught.
On Tuesday, the Bank of Canada makes an interest rate announcement before the bell. Most economists are now calling for a cut of 25 basis points.
CIBC World Markets sees a 25 bps cut, as does TD Bank, BMO Nesbitt Burns and RBC DS. “With the U.S. showing few signs of recovery and the global economy teetering, trimming rates by an-other 25 basis points seems prudent,” says BMO. “Even though inflation is currently above the target band, it will fall back in the coming months and should not block the Bank.”
RBC DS says, “The Bank’s statement Tuesday will leave the door open for further easing, but whether it acts further will depend largely on the prospects for a recovery in U.S. demand. Improvement in the U.S. data will make Tuesday’s cut the last in the cycle.”
In the United States, Tuesday will see industrial production and capacity utilization numbers released. Economists are expecting to see continued weakness in these numbers.
On Wednesday, U.S. consumer inflation data is due, along with housing starts data, and U.S. Federal Reserve Board chair Alan Greenspan is testifying before the House Financial Services Committee. Inflation is not much of a worry in the U.S. right now, and housing data is notoriously volatile.
BMO Nesbitt Burns says that Greenspan’s comments will “set the tone for midsummer trading. There is no doubt he will try to inhabit the middle ground, listing the ongoing economic risks, noting that the labour markets, profits, and capital spending are moving adversely, but not denying that rapid monetary easing could already have set the stage for a second-half pickup. However, relative to the hawkish expectations for Fed policy now built into futures prices, we believe there is a chance that his nuanced remarks will be read as dovish, particularly if the tone of the Q&A session is seen hinting at the possible need for additional easing.”.
DS says Greenspan will likely indicate that the economy is bottoming. “He will leave the door open for further easing, but reflect the reluctance of some of his colleagues in hinting that it is a possibility, not a certainty. Acting on it will depend on developments.”
Wednesday will also see manufacturing shipments data out in Canada. Followed on Thursday by trade balance data in both Canada and the U.S.
Data Fest winds up on Friday, with Canadian CPI numbers. BMO says, “The last two CPI reports have been shocking, with inflation jumping to 3.9% year-over-year. Starting in June, CPI should begin the process of falling back toward the 1%-to-3% target band.”
On top of all the economic data, it will also be a blockbuster week for earnings announcements, which at least heralds the end of warning season. Almost 200 of the S&P 500’s companies are reporting next week, including IBM, Intel, Microsoft and Citigroup.
Alcan should report on Monday, along with Sears and TVX Gold. Jean Coutu is up Tuesday. Wednesday will see Celestica report, along with Falconbridge and Methanex. On Thursday, Nortel Networks is slated to report, as are Aliant, Domtar, Mosaic, TransAlta and West Fraser Timber. On Friday, Acetex will have the floor.
“In the U.S., with Greenspan likely to hem and haw, markets will have to take their cue elsewhere,” says CIBC World Markets. “With earnings season in full flight, the sentiment on growth will in part be driven by guidance from corporate CEOs. While stocks managed to stop falling after the word from Microsoft and Motorola, at best, corporate America is talking about a bottoming, not a takeoff.”