After a heavy week of economic data and corporate earnings announcements, next week looks like more of the same.
In Canada, the economic data schedule is light. On Tuesday, we get GDP numbers for May, and on Wednesday, there’s a Monetary Policy Update from the Bank of Canada.
CIBC World Markets says, “The report should merely provide the details behind the cautiously optimistic forecast summarized on the announcement of its last rate cut. If so, don’t expect much guidance for markets, which are likely to wait for Canadian employment figures the following week before pricing in a more aggressively dovish stance from the Bank.”
The United States will see a steady flow of data all week though. On Tuesday, personal income and spending numbers are out, along with consumer confidence readings.
Wednesday welcomes the National Association of Purchasing Managers report. On Thursday, factory orders will be revealed.
Of these, the big number is likely to be the NAPM. “The Purchasing Managers’ survey has been closely related to basic-industry performance and loosely connected to high tech,” says BMO Nesbitt Burns. “That’s why we believe the index may tick up again as the inventory correction draws to a conclusion outside high tech.”
The big data point for the U.S. will come on Friday, when the market gets its jobs report, including non-farm payrolls, unemployment readings and average hourly earnings. “In the U.S., payrolls will take top billing, and while we expect a somewhat smaller drop than consensus, that might be more than offset by a two-tick jump in the unemployment rate to 4.7%,” says CIBC World Markets. “In sum, beyond the headlines, the data will remain generally supportive for Treasuries, and negative for equities and the U.S. dollar.”
TD Bank economists say, “This coming week’s heavy slate of economic reports will go a long way in forming perceptions about the health of the U.S. economy. Wednesday’s NAPM index and Friday’s non-farm payrolls data for July will garner the greatest attention, as these reports provide the most timely snapshot of economic conditions. Consensus forecasts suggest that while the NAPM index may have held its ground and some sub-components may have improved last month, the news will still be negative, with the U.S. manufacturing sector remaining in recession. Meanwhile, expectations are that the U.S. economy continued to shed workers in July – marking the third decline in four months. These bleak results and any unexpected downside surprises in the data may add to speculation that the Fed’s rate cuts since the start of the year are not proving effective.”
The other economic event in Canada will come next Monday when the new Liberal government in British Columbia unveils a mini-budget. “Premier Gordon Campbell has already announced a 25% income tax cut, as promised in the election campaign, leaving the focus on the spending side for this document. The new government will likely front-load bad fiscal news,” says BMO Nesbitt Burns.
There will be plenty of earnings announcements on tap next week. Monday leads off with news from Aur Resources, BC Gas Inc., Morguard REIT and Noranda.
Ashanti Goldfields is due to report Tuesday, along with AT Plastics Inc., Fortis Inc., Homestake Mining, Manulife Financial, MDC Corporation, Shaw and Sherritt.
Wedsnesday we’ll hear from Enerflex Systems, Future Shop Ltd., Husky Energy, Linamar Corporation, Talisman Energy and Trizec Hahn.
Cameco, Canadian Tire Corp., Canadian Utilities Ltd., Echo Bay Mines, Gold Fields Ltd., Kinross Gold and Newmont Mining should report on Thursday. The week wraps up with news from SNC-Lavalin Group and Uni-Sélect Inc.