Despite being a big vacation week, this week will be a fairly busy one for economic data. A decision on interest rates from the Bank of Canada will be the week’s centrepiece.

Although many people may not be around to hear it, the central bank’s decision is due Tuesday morning. The consensus is that rates are coming down another 25 basis points to match the August 21 decision of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board.

“This will drop the overnight target to 4%, and the bank rate to 4.25%, bringing the cumulative interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada to 175 basis points,” notes BMO Nesbitt Burns. “The Canadian economy is increasingly feeling the pinch of the U.S. slowdown with employment and help-wanted ads down, manufacturing shipments in decline, retail sales tailing off, the trade balance surplus shrinking, and the leading indicator not suggesting an imminent recovery.”

CIBC World Markets suggests that the central bank could justify a 50 bps rate cut, but it expects the bank to play it safe with a 25 bps move. BMO says that the wording of the accompanying statement will be very important. “To date, the Bank has maintained a relatively optimistic tone, but with the risk of an extended U.S. slowdown, the Bank may inject a word of caution into the outlook.”

Also on Tuesday, consumer confidence numbers are out in the United States. With the consumer the only support left in the economy, economists are hoping to see a slight uptick in the number.

On Wednesday, industrial price data is out in the U.S., along with the week’s most important data in the U.S., second quarter GDP. Consensus is that growth will be shown to have ground to a halt. CIBC says there will be lots of worry if the result comes in negative, but it says that either way the message is that there’s no growth.

On Thursday, personal income and spending numbers will be released in the U.S., giving more indications of the consumer’s health.

Friday will bring Canada’s second quarter real GDP numbers and the current account balance. GDP is expected to slow drastically from 2.5% to 1.4%, and the surplus is seen narrowing to $10.9 billion. TD Bank says that our GDP numbers will mirror the U.S., revealing an economy held up by consumers and let down by business. “Both the trade balance and the current account surpluses are past their peaks, succumbing to the U.S. slowdown,” says BMO.

In the U.S. on Friday, factory orders numbers will be released, and Fed chairman Alan Greenspan will deliver a speech, which should garner some attention.

Although there’s lots of data due out, CIBC characterizes much of it as secondary numbers, suggesting, “Expect a week of drifting markets ahead of the labor day weekend, with neither equities nor bonds likely to establish a new direction until the next set of payrolls figures, and the upcoming earnings warning season in September.”

Ahead of earnings warning season, the slate of releases will be light, unless you are a bank analyst. Forzani Group Ltd. is the lone notable firm reporting on Monday, followed by Bank of Montreal and Bank of Nova Scotia on Tuesday. Leitch Technology also reports Tuesday.

Laurentian Bank takes its turn on Wednesday. Hudson’s Bay Co. reports Thursday, and National Bank rounds it out by announcing its results, too.