After another week of poor economic data, U.S. analysts get a very light data session this week. Canada faces a holiday-shortened week, but some important data is on the schedule anyway.
The only notable releases in the U.S. this week will be wholesale trade for June on Wednesday, the Producer Price Index on Thursday and non-farm productivity on Friday.
BMO Nesbitt Burns says that the U.S. economic news out this week is mostly second-tier data, so traders will have to be content with sulking over the apparent consequences of recent releases. “We are not going to see another spectacular quarter of productivity gains and the impact on costs of the layoffs was smaller. The workout period looks like it will last longer than we formerly thought,” it says.
CIBC World Markets says, “A light week for economic and earnings data will keep the market stewing in its own juices. The new guessing game on how bad things have to get for the Fed to ease will keep the front end of the yield curve highly volatile.” It argues that the consensus on non-farm productivity is way too high. “But neither a weak productivity figure (which is typically seen as inflationary), nor an upside surprise in PPI, would have any impact on financial markets. It’s growth, not inflation, that’s the issue.”
RBC Financial says that, “the data spotlight will definitely turn to Canada with a number of important releases.” Monday is a holiday. Building permit data is due out on Wednesday, the purchasing managers index is slated for Thursday. Friday will be the big day though, with housing starts numbers, and the all-important labour force survey for July.
CIBC says that it expects a reversion to slower employment gains in July, and it argues that much weaker results are likely as the year progresses. “Purchasing managers should have been afflicted by the same concerns that drove the ISM lower stateside, although note that the Canadian number includes service sector and government buyers. Housing starts are due for a retreat, but should remain at a very brisk level for now.”
The jobs report will be particularly important because it will be the last jobs report the Bank of Canada will see prior to the next policy announcement date on September 4.
BMO notes that the Canadian economy churned out 304,000 net new jobs in the first half of the year, the largest six-month gain on record and an average increase of just over 50,000 per month. “While forecasters have consistently underestimated the underlying strength of the Canadian labour market, it does look as though job growth is finally poised to cool.” It sees a moderation in employment growth to a still-solid +25,000 in July, which would hold the unemployment rate steady at 7.5%. “However, following six consecutive months of consensus-topping gains, few would be surprised by yet another robust reading.”
The earnings flood finally eases a little this week, with Glamis Gold reporting on Monday.
Ashanti Goldfields is reporting Tuesday, along with Metro Inc., Perot Systems Corporation and Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers.
CAE, Canada Life, Danier Leather, Ensign Resource Service Group, Mosaic Group Inc., and Sleeman Brewing report on Wednesday.
On Thursday, we’ll hear from Canadian Tire Corp., Kingsway Financial and Uni-Sélect Inc.
Friday is typically quiet with Groupe Laperriere & Verreault Inc. and a couple of REITs reporting.