Next week traders will likely remain preoccupied with political and military events, as the threat of military action remains at the forefront.
The holiday-shortened week is also a light one for economic data in Canada, although the schedule is heavier in the United States.
The G-7 Finance Ministers and central bankers are meeting in Washington on Saturday, and traders will be keeping an eye on that, although it’s not likely to generate any major market-moving news.
Monday is the Thanksgiving holiday in Canada, and it’s Columbus Day in the U.S. All our markets will be closed, and while U.S. commodity and bond markets will be closed, equity markets will be open for business.
Tuesday will bring the only real economic data out in Canada for the week — housing starts. Starts are expected to slow slippage during for September.
On Wednesday, wholesale trade numbers are out in the U.S. Thursday brings initial jobless claims, import prices, and a speech from Federal Reserve Board chair Alan Greenspan on the subject of monetary policy.
Banc of America Capital Management says, “The coming week will shed more light on the degree to which the U.S. economy has been transformed in the past month. Prepare for another high number — around 500,000– in jobless claims filings.”
But the big news may be the European Central Bank’s rate announcement. BMO Nesbitt Burns says, “The European Central Bank has at long last begun to respond forcefully to the deepening slowdown which has now fully engulfed Europe. More rate cuts are coming from the ECB in the weeks ahead, possibly up to an additional 100 basis points of easing. Look for a 25 bps slice at next week’s meeting as a down payment. This would still leave European rates a full percentage point above their U.S. counterparts.”
On Friday, there’s a slew of data out in the U.S. Retail sales, the producer price index and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index will be released.
The retail numbers are expected to show some serious terrorist-inspired weakness, while the price data doesn’t pose much concern to economists. “One risk, more likely to show up in October, is that the disruptions following the terrorist attacks will cause some spot shortages of critical commodities that will result in large, temporary price hikes. If so, PPI headlines could be distorted relative to the underlying reality.”
There are also virtually no earnings announcements on the schedule, so warnings will likely dictate the trade.