Between a Bank of Canada rate announcement, anthrax fears, and earnings season, this week promises to be a busy one.

Monday’s retail trade numbers will be the last chance the central bank has to get a view on the economy before its Tuesday rate decision. Economists remain convinced that a 50 basis point rate cut is baked in the cake, although there is some talk of a more cautious 25 bps move.

Canadian retail sales are expected to rebound from a weak month previously, but these numbers were recorded before September 11 and so don’t have much relevance to the current environment and shouldn’t be able to jump enough to derail the bank’s plans.

“In Canada, it’s an easy choice for the Bank of Canada — cut rates a half point, and show it’s ready to fight the battle against recession. Inflation isn’t a problem, and defending the Canadian dollar is therefore not a priority right now.”

Following the rate announcement, Bank governor David Dodge is scheduled to speak at the Moncton chamber of commerce on Wednesday, but by then his decision will be done, so markets will be back watching the war on terrorism and corporate earnings.

In the U.S., Federal Reserve Board chairman Alan Greenspan has speeches scheduled for Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. Markets will watch them all, although earnings and world politics will likely dominate the attention of traders.

“In the U.S., a light week for economic data will keep earnings front and centre, although investors will also keep a close eye on the battle against terrorism,” says CIBC. “Equity investors seem to be growing weary of cheering too loudly for abysmal earnings that happen to be a penny better than expected.”

Also, in the U.S., the Beige Book is out Wednesday, followed by durable goods orders and the employment cost index on Thursday. Friday will see new home sales data.

“The Fed’s Beige Book is composed of anecdotal reports and is well timed to deliver just what we need to judge the current state of the economy,” says BMO Nesbitt Burns. “It could prove market-moving if Greenspan’s broad hint, that things are not as bad as he feared they would be, is confirmed by the Beige Book.”

Nevertheless, durable goods orders are expected to slide sharply. “We expect new orders to plunge 1% in September, with non-transportation bookings off 2.1%. The impact on business confidence during the post-terrorist-attack period could have been reflected in some order delays that might bring down the September figures even more sharply,” says BMO.

On the earnings front the schedule will be heavy. Monday we’ll hear from Aliant Inc., CP Railway, and Noranda.

Tuesday will bring reports from Bowater, CN Railway, Cogeco Inc., Inco, Petro-Canada and Potash Corp. Abitibi-Consolidated Inc. reports

Wednesday BCE Emergis Inc., BCE Inc., Cara Operations , Fording Coal, Norske Canada, Nova Chemicals Corp., Shell Canada, Sun Life Financial, Suncor, Teck Cominco and Westcoast Energy Inc. will report.

On Thursday, Agnico-Eagle Mines, Cambior Inc., Clarica Life Insurance, Manitoba Telecom and Telus Corp. are reporting.

Friday will bring reports from Canadian Utilities Ltd., DuPont Canada Inc. and Inmet.