Next week’s data focus will be jobs — as the U.S. gets some important employment data ahead of the Federal Reserve Board’s last scheduled rate meeting on December 11.

The jobs data won’t come until the end of next week. On Monday, personal income and spending data is due, Fed chair Alan Greenspan is speaking, and the latest reading from the National Association of Purchasing Managers is on the docket.

Based on a brutal Chicago Purchasing Managers Index out today, the National Association of Purchasing Managers report is expected to be ugly. However, BMO Nesbitt Burns says that an upside surprise would likely be received with enthusiasm.

“There is no question that a substantial pop in the NAPM survey would re-ignite expectations recently doused by the rise in unemployment claims that the economy will quickly recover. The market is on a knife’s edge, awaiting evidence that the economy is picking up.”

In Canada, there’s no economic data until Thursday, and even then it’s just building permits. In the U.S., factory orders numbers are due.

Friday brings the all-important jobs numbers on both sides of the border. Barring an inter-meeting cut, the Bank of Canada is done cutting for this year. “Markets should forget Governor Dodge’s recently upbeat assessment of Canadian economic prospects, if as we expect, employment data begin to disappoint,” says CIBC World Markets. “Compared to the U.S., Canada is long overdue for an ugly jobs report. And we look to get just that.”

As for the U.S., BMO says that it is looking for another substantial drop in payrolls and a sharp rise in the jobless rate. The result would be rate cuts. “Our expectation going into the week is that the Fed will ease on December 11. There’s no question, however, that the Fed will be guided by the data.”

CIBC agrees that the US economic data will solidify the case for a December rate cut. “A couple of weak reports serve as bookends to the week ahead, with Monday’s lame NAPM reading echoing the soft business theme that emerged from the recent Beige Book. The parade of job losses looks to continue in earnest on Friday.”

The earnings schedule is rather light next week, although it is chock full of financial firms. B2B Trust will report on Monday.

Husky Injection Molding and Laurentian Bank reports Tuesday. Wednesday brings Bank of Nova Scotia, Boutiques San Francisco and Mark’s Work Wearhouse.

Canadian Western Bank reports on Thursday, as does National Bank.