This week has a rather busy data schedule, but with central bank meetings now done for the year, is anybody going to be paying that much attention?
BMO Nesbitt Burns says no. “Markets are drifting into the end-of-year period when traders are reluctant to establish important new positions. Moreover, other than the critical question of holiday spending, the coming week’s figures do not appear to have a strong potential to be market-moving.”
This Tuesday, manufacturing shipments numbers are out in Canada. “Manufacturing activity looks to have partially rebounded as well in October. However, a 1.2% plunge in industrial prices will weigh on shipments. As a result, shipments are likely to rise 1%, recouping less than half the September slide.” In the United States, housing numbers are out.
On Wednesday, trade numbers will be available in the U.S. and Canada, and the U.S. will get its leading indicator readings. BMO says it is looking for the U.S. trade gap to widen to $28 billion from $18.7 billion in September, as “exports and imports are imploding due to the global slowdown”.
Thursday brings retail sales numbers in Canada, along with the CPI. Gasoline prices will continue to dominate the erratic moves in the CPI yet again in November, notes BMO Nesbitt. “Pump prices fell about 7% on average last month, which should yield another monthly drop in headline CPI and a slide in the annual inflation rate to 1.5% from 1.9% in October. In a pale imitation of the plus-6% surge in U.S. retail sales in October, Canadian retail activity is expected to perk up 1.0% after a 1.7% slide in September. Even with a snap-back, sales will only be up 3% from year-ago levels, or about half the rate seen in 2000.”
In the U.S., initial claims reports will be watched for signs that layoffs are abating.
On Friday, Canada gets its international securities transactions results for October. The U.S. will be reporting third quarter real GDP, personal income and spending data, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.
“Personal income growth is at a standstill. So are negotiations on Capitol Hill for an additional stimulus package,” says BMO. “We hope the logjam breaks before Congress adjourns for the holiday — something is needed to keep consumer spending from following employment lower.”
The earnings schedule is quiet, too, with just Envoy Communications Group Inc. set to report Wednesday, and Cognos Inc. slated for Thursday.