With Christmas vacation upon us there’s hardly any data out next week. Traders will be looking ahead to the following week, and the New Year for signs of recovery.

In Canada, October GDP numbers are out on Monday. “October looks to have been a very disappointing bounce-back from the huge hole that the economy fell into in September,” says CIBC World Markets.

“Given the low base that September’s -0.8% real GDP figure set for Q4, the October rebound will still see the economy pointing at a second consecutive negative quarter. With inflation having plunged in the latest data, we continue to favour a 50 basis point reduction by the Bank of Canada in January.”

BMO Nesbitt Burns agrees, noting, “It appears that there was next to no overall bounce-back in October. On balance, it appears that overall GDP will be roughly unchanged for October, although we do look for a modest recovery in November. Even so, the weak starting base for Q4 suggests that GDP will decline at nearly a 2% annual rate in the quarter.”

Friday brings the only other data, with U.S. durable goods orders. “The key to the durables report will be the ex-transportation component, where we look for a 1% bookings decline,” says BMO.

In the following week, there’s some better data out in the U.S., with the NAPM index and a payrolls report. “The economy is probably approaching a turning point this winter. We expect growth to be restarted by spring. Timing is not easy to pinpoint, of course, and there is a chance that the upturn will take root earlier. If so, we should see some hints during the first week in January when NAPM and the employment report are released,” says BMO.

“Our early calls are for a moderate, weather-aided 100,000 employment decline and for NAPM to inch closer to the 50 mark. Both results would presage gradual healing in the economy over the middle of the year.”

BMO says the survey from factory purchasing managers will show a modest upturn, while remaining in territory consistent with declining output.

“But the larger surprise could be the payrolls report, if only because over the past two months, markets have gotten used to huge net job losses. If this recession is to end any time soon, that can’t continue. In December, the job loss tally will be held in check by a temporary boost in construction. But the market’s response could be tempered if the rest of the picture remains as soft as we expect,” says CIBC.

TD says, “All told, while financial markets are correct in anticipating a recovery some time next year, there is not much evidence that the Canadian or the U.S. economies have reached a trough yet.”

There are no major earnings releases scheduled.