In Canada, the big news this week will be an announcement on interest rates. There some is suspense over whether the cut will be 25 basis points, or 50 bps. South of the border, there’s a slew of economic announcements on deck.

Canada’s rate announcement is slated for Tuesday morning, and the consensus is sticking with a 25 bps cut, although friday’s week jobs report has pushed some analysts to call for 50 bps.

CIBC World Markets is firmly in the 50 bps camp. “We were earlier a nearly lone voice calling for a half-point move, but markets have moved to price that in after the spike in the unemployment rate,” it boasts. “The accompanying message from the Bank of Canada will stay true to the earlier message of an economic rebound ahead, emphasizing dampened inflation pressures, not the rising jobless rate, as the factor behind the rate cut.”

BMO Nesbitt Burns remains committed to a 25 bps cut, conceding the risk of 50 bps. ” On balance, the odds favour a more restrained cut of 25 bps, although the surprises over the past year have been entirely on the side of the Bank making larger- than-expected cuts.” RBC’s economists are calling for 50 bps.

Apart from the rate decision, a trade balance report, due this Friday, is the only other release due in Canada next week. “After hitting record highs early in 2001, Canada’s trade surplus headed erratically south through the rest of the year. Look for yet another decline in exports for November to drag the surplus to $3.9 billion from $4.2 billion in the prior month, and an average of $5.5 billion over the past year.”

The U.S. calendar is far heavier. “In the U.S., a flurry of economic releases will add colour to the fourth quarter story, while leaving the overall picture of weakness intact,” says CIBC.

Retail trade numbers are due on Tuesday. “No one is going to be surprised this week when lower auto sales contribute to a drop in December U.S. retail activity. However, over the week as a whole, the steady drip of soft data could dampen strong recovery hopes,” says BMO Nesbitt.

Wednesday brings the latest readings on consumer prices, industrial production and capacity utilization. The Fed’s Beige Book is out that afternoon, too. “And after the PPI data, a soft CPI will similarly leave few doubting the lack of headline price pressures,” says CIBC.

On Thursday, housing starts data is released. “December housing starts should defy interest-rate gravity for one more month before the industry heads for the basement in the New Year,” BMO Nesbitt says.

Friday brings a goods and services balance number. Also, the University of Michigan sentiment index is out. BMO forecasts, “The University of Michigan’s survey will continue to demonstrate stiff upper lip attitudes on the part of the public. The U.S. foreign trade gap will be woeful, as always.”

Earnings season is in full swing, too, and CIBC expects that to be a big story too. “Look for the focus to lie on corporate earnings announcements as the reporting season moves into high gear, with stocks likely to shrug off anemic results while eyeing better times ahead.”

Canadian companies due to report include Cogeco Cable on Monday, along with Jean Coutu Group. Cogeco Inc. reports Tuesday. Thursday is the big day with reports from Nortel, Sears Canada Inc. and Suncor. CGI Group Inc. reports on Friday.