This week will see a bit of economic data released each day, but the lacklustre market for equities is expected to continue.
March building permits are due out in Canada on Monday. Wednesday will see the release of April housing starts and the Ivey purchasing managers index. But the big day in Canada will be Friday, when the April labour force survey is reported.
“In Canada, housing starts can’t sustain the huge level reached in March, but bear in mind that even a 10% retreat would still leave homebuilding at a healthy pace, and can therefore not be judged as a sign of a weakening economy. It’s much the same for labour markets, where we are overdue for a correction after a hiring binge in the first quarter,” says BMO Nesbitt Burns.
“Any hiring at all would still leave Canada’s substantial edge over U.S. employment this year intact. It’s that development that has been key to the Bank of Canada’s ability to go it alone on rate hikes this spring,” notes BMO. It says that job growth is expected to come in up 15,000, with the jobless rate slipping another tick to 7.6%.
In the U.S., the focus will be on the Federal Reserve rate decision on Tuesday. Although, no one is expecting the Fed to do anything. News hungry Fed watchers will at least have a policy statement to dissect though. “There’s clearly nothing to fear from the FOMC meeting, as the Fed will hold both interest rates and its neutral bias unchanged, and will likely say nothing much beyond Greenspan’s recent testimony,” says CIBC World Markets.
RBC Financial, TD Bank and BMO Nesbitt Burns all agree that no rate move is coming. “Markets will conclude that everyone has to wait and see how events develop. There is no shortcut to predicting when the likely second-half tightening will begin,” says BMO.
Also out on Tuesday in the U.S., are the preliminary reading of first quarter productivity, and the March report on wholesale trade. Friday will see the April release of the producer price index. CIBC says that strong productivity growth and a soft PPI will add weight to the Fed’s view that it can afford to be patient before turning to a tightening stance. “We might therefore see even more of a consensus emerge that there will be no rate action until August at the earliest, which will play well at the short end of the yield curve.”
BMO notes that productivity is rebounding, as workers continue to disappear. “We can conclude that cost-cutting is going straight to the bottom line and that profit growth will be substantial.” It sees headline PPI up by at least 0.4%, led by surging energy costs, but that core finished goods PPI will hold the line at 0.1%. “It’s perfectly normal for industrial prices that were pummeled in the recession period to show some modest signs of a pulse now that recovery is at hand. That development is often seen in early recoveries and never suggests that consumer inflation will be pushed higher.”
On the earnings front, the flow slows this week, ahead of the all-important bank earnings coming along. On Monday, Glamis Gold reports. Tuesday we hear from Cambior Inc., Industrial-Alliance, Meridian Gold and Wajax Limited.
CAE reports on Wednesday, along with Canadian Natural Resources and Uni-Sélect Inc. On Thursday, Canadian Tire Corp. is due to report, as is SNC-Lavalin Group. Boardwalk Equities and the Four Seasons should confess on Friday.