This week will be rather quiet on the Canadian data front, but there should be enough action in the U.S., and on the earnings docket, to keep traders on both sides of the border-hopping.
In Canada, March auto sales are due out on Tuesday. Bank of Canada governor David Dodge is also speaking at the Canadian Club that day. Economists aren’t expecting anything new from Dodge.
Thursday will see the release of the manufacturing shipments data for March. And Friday brings the report on merchandise trade for March. CIBC World Markets suggests that there could be an upside surprise in manufacturing shipments.
“March Canadian indicators will be closely scrutinized for any signs that the economy is slowing in the spring, after likely posting GDP growth of over 5% in Q1,” says BMO Nesbitt Burns. “The manufacturing data for March will provide some important clues. We are looking for a 0.5% rise in shipments, but some of this will reflect a price-related increase in refined petroleum. Even with only a modest rise in shipments, the inventory-shipments ratio is expected to show further improvement.”
In the U.S., there is a full schedule of economic news. April retail sales are due out on Tuesday. “Retailers didn’t do very well in April, but the monthly retail sales report will look better than the chain store data, as it will adjust for an early Easter, and capture gains for gas stations and auto dealers,” says CIBC World Markets.
On Wednesday, the consumer price index and industrial production for April are due to be released, along with business inventories for March. “We’ve been looking for the core CPI to stage its traditional early-recovery swoon. Hopefully, a 0.1% April core reading will continue the March progress in that direction,” offers BMO Nesbitt Burns.
Thursday will bring April housing starts data, along with the Philly Fed index and initial claims. International trade numbers and the May preliminary reading of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index are due on Friday.
“All told, the week is most likely to diminish anxieties about the economy a bit, keeping the endless discussion about when the Fed will start tightening in play,” suggests BMO Nesbitt Burns. “It’s way too soon to say at this point.”
Despite all the economic data, CIBC World Markets suggests that earnings releases are still more important. “The market’s response to earnings is likely to continue to drown out economic releases,” it says.
In Canada, Intrawest reports on Monday. AltaGas, Baytex Energy, Richmont Mines, Sleeman Brewing and several REITs will report on Tuesday.
Wednesday brings Caribbean Utilities Co., Newmont Mining, Rio Alto Exploration and TVX Gold. Bank earnings finally begin on Thursday with news from TD Bank. More REITs will on Friday.