This week will bring some important economic news, although there is not much doubt about where interest rates are headed these days.

Monday is a holiday in Canada. And it will take until Thursday before there’s any economic data released, with the Help-Wanted Index and building permits.

Friday’s jobs report will be the real news. CIBC World Markets predicts that the unemployment rate is set to fall as the participation rate comes off an unusual blip last month. “Even with a softer jobs gain, that will reinforce the perception of a gap between Canadian and U.S. results, given that the American jobless tally is likely to head higher on the same day. Look for the front end of the Canadian curve to underperform the U.S. as a result, with the direction of both markets tied to equities,” it says.

BMO Nesbitt Burns calls for another solid payroll increase of 20,000 in June, with the jobless the rate slipping back to 7.6%. “This is down from last year’s peak level of 8% in December, but is still well above the year-ago level of 7.1%.”

“In the US, while keeping one eye on accounting issues and SEC releases, the markets will have a chance to return to news from the real economy,” observes CIBC. “With our forecasts mixed relative to the consensus, the driver for financial markets is likely to continue to be news on earnings, both real and fictitious.”

The U.S. is also looking at a holiday week, with Independence Day falling on Thursday. Before that, the ISM Manufacturing numbers are out on Monday. Factory orders are due on Wednesday. The ISM manufacturing survey should continue to point to growth in the factory sector, says CIBC. “Inventories are so lean in the U.S. economy that there is room for several months of production gains solely to restock empty shelves.”

“We look for the closely followed ISM figures to underscore the sustainability of the manufacturing rebound,” says BMO Nesbitt. “With the dollar expected to keep falling, gloom is lifting in this sector.”

The Friday jobs report will be the focus south of the border, too. BMO is calling for reports of 100,000 new jobs, and an increase in the unemployment rate. CIBC says that the employment report should show a second consecutive gain for payrolls, “but one unlikely to be good enough to keep the unemployment rate from returning to its rising trend.”