Merger and acquisition activity between companies will remain buoyant despite some weakening in financial and economic conditions, according to new research from UBS Wealth Management Research.
Despite a rash of profit warnings and weakening credit conditions during the third quarter, the report concludes that more M&A between companies is in store. “The present subprime-lending crisis is taking a toll on leveraged buyouts but will likely do little to dampen the prospects for corporate strategic deals, provided that most of the fallout remains contained within the bank and brokerage industries,” it says. “For equity investors, this is good news. Elevated levels of M&A activity tends to coincide with strong performance in equity markets and also gives a boost to the share price of takeover targets.”
The report shows that the volume of corporate strategic M&A is hardly excessive by historical standards, especially after accounting for the effects of inflation and the rise of leveraged buyouts. M&A activity is also more globally diversified, and influenced by more participants, than ever before. Private equity firms, sovereign wealth funds, and cross-border deals will likely remain permanent fixtures, it says.
Large corporate cash balances, reasonable equity market valuations, and a desire to gain global scale all support continued corporate consolidation, according to the report. In addition, recent moves to bring financial markets and accounting standards into greater alignment increases the potential for cross-border merger activity. The emergence of large sovereign wealth funds, which aim to deploy capital to higher-risk assets, may also pave the way for more international linkages.
Globally, the report highlights the financial and materials industries as having the greatest potential for M&A activity in the coming years. The report also points to M&A activity from the US and European consumer staples sector, as companies pursue growth through acquisitions in emerging markets. European media companies are set to consolidate regionally, while some small- to mid-size Japanese pharmaceutical companies look ripe to merge for benefits of scale.
The report also points out that the conditions needed to support leveraged buyouts are no longer as favorable as they were during 2006 and early 2007. Private equity companies will continue to generate earnings from their portfolio of acquired companies, but new acquisitions will prove both more difficult and perhaps less financially advantageous. As a result, the private equity industry may need to alter its core business strategy, it says. “This could involve a reduction in the industry’s dependence on leveraged buyouts and an increased focus on minority investment positions, smaller acquisition targets, and more specialized buyouts of emerging market companies,” the report says. “Investments by sovereign wealth funds into the private equity industry may facilitate additional takeovers, despite the deteriorating macroeconomic and financial market conditions.”
Subprime-lending crisis unlikely to dampen M&A activity
Prospects for corporate strategic deals should should boost equity markets
- By: James Langton
- November 15, 2007 November 15, 2007
- 16:15