With U.S. voters set to go to the polls in just over a week, those speculating on the outcome could look to economic and stock market performance for a hint, according to a new report by TD Economics.

The report examines possible correlation between the timing of the presidential election in the United States and the performance of the economy and financial markets.

It finds little evidence of a consistent cyclical pattern in either tax policy or government spending around election periods, but notes that economic performance can play a role in determining which party is elected.

In considering elections of the past few decades, report author James Marple finds that “a buoyant economy and low inflation are positive for an incumbent parties running for president, while a struggling economy is bad news for re-election.”

Along the same lines, Marple says his research shows that financial markets can also be expected to perform better when incumbents win re-election.

Since 1960, the incumbent party has won the election six times and lost six times. In the six elections won by incumbents, the average annual change in the Dow Jones industrial average was 10.8%, compared to 6.4% when incumbents lost, Marple points out.

“Stronger confidence and higher returns appear with some consistency in years when incumbent parties are re-elected,” Marple says.

Distinct business cycle patterns that relate to U.S. presidential elections have faded through the years along with the increased independence of the Federal Reserve, the report notes.

But, “a strong economy and low inflation is still important for a political party hoping to retake the presidency,” Marple says. He adds that the economy’s influence on politics has been on display throughout the current presidential election campaign.

In terms of the market activity to expect following the election, Marple points out that post-election rallies are not uncommon in election years, but appear to be greater when incumbent parties are re-elected.

Regardless of which party wins, however, with current economic weakness expected to persist well into next year, Marple says investors may have to wait a bit longer for their “post-election celebration.”