Economists see signs of hope among the orders for U.S. durable goods in November.

The numbers were reported on December 28, showing that orders fell 4.8%, up from a 12.5% drop in October. “New orders continue to be distorted by the terrorist attacks and the U.S. military response,” says BMO Nesbitt Burns.

“Going against an anticipated modest decline, orders excluding transportation rose 1.1%, the first back-to-back gain since late 1999. Computers, electrical equipment, machinery and primary metals led the advance. Another hopeful sign was the second straight rise in non-defense capital goods orders of 4.8%, although still below August levels.”

BMO notes that, while three- and twelve-month trends remain deep in negative territory, and orders remain very weak, they are no longer deteriorating as quickly.

“Although the U.S. military action in Afghanistan has caused volatility in defense and aircraft orders, the broader trend remains soft, but does not appear to be weakening further. This report supports the view that the factory sector is finding a bottom, and that the stage is being set for a spring recovery.”