Jilted, betrayed, dumped or defiant — it’s hard to describe the European Union after relentless attacks from its once-dependable ally, the United States. The threat from a second Donald Trump administration, including aggression toward Greenland, sweeping tariff plans and a renewed courtship of Moscow, has firmed up some European leaders’ vows to reduce their reliance on America.
That has not gone unnoticed in another global power. China hopes for a Europe detached from the U.S. and is sensing an opportunity to divide the West. For the past several years, the EU moved in lockstep with Washington to levy tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and sanction Chinese officials accused of rights violations.
Now, locked in a trade war with Washington that may be prolonged, Beijing sees the 27-nation bloc as a desirable partner in blunting the impact from Trump’s tariffs and maintaining its global position.
But for EU leaders meeting Thursday in Brussels to discuss China among a host of regional and global issues, managing ties with Beijing is no easy task.
An upcoming summit in China in July to mark 50 years of diplomatic ties may offer the first hint of new consensus between the two powers.
Europe’s hopes for China
EU-China economic ties are significant: bilateral trade is estimated at 2.3 billion euros (US$2.7 billion) per day.
China is the EU’s second-largest trading partner in goods after the United States. Both China and the EU believe it is in their interest to keep trade ties stable for the sake of the global economy, and they share certain climate goals.
Like the U.S., Europe runs a massive trade deficit with China — around 300 billion euros last year. It relies heavily on China for critical minerals, used to make magnets in cars and appliances. As European companies face declining profitability in China, Brussels is hoping Beijing will follow through on pledges such as one announced Thursday by China’s Ministry of Commerce to ease restrictions on foreign businesses.
“While others opened their market, China focused [on] undercutting intellectual property protections [and] massive subsidies with the aim to dominate global manufacturing and supply chains,” said EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen at the G7 meeting in Canada. “This is not market competition — it is distortion with intent.”
Europe, already fretting over the trade deficit, now worries that Trump’s tariffs could divert even more Chinese goods to Europe, destabilizing markets across the continent.
Such vulnerabilities could strengthen Beijing’s negotiating position, said Alicia Garcia-Herrero, a China analyst with the Brussels-based Bruegel think tank.
“China has built so many strategic dependencies that the EU is trapped in an asymmetric relationship,” she said, adding that Beijing could leverage them to “get a deal in July.”
Beijing’s new strategy for Europe
Analysts don’t expect a grand bargain at the summit, but China will likely demand the EU lift tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles or reopen the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment. Either or both would send a powerful signal to Washington.
China’s primary goal is to ensure the EU remains an accessible and affluent market for goods that might not reach the U.S. due to Trump’s tariff blitz. Despite a temporary trade war truce, Chinese businesses are broadening their global reach to be less dependent on the U.S.
Regardless of any deal, the summit itself will be the message, said Noah Barkin, an analyst at the German Marshall Fund. For the EU, a key goal would be for von der Leyen to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping, he said.
Whereas she was “treated rather shabbily” on a 2023 trip to Beijing, Barkin said the Chinese this time will probably “roll out the red carpet,” keen to see “pictures of Chinese and European leaders walking through gardens and sending a message of unity.”
Sun Chenghao, head of the U.S.-EU program at Tsinghua University’s Center for International Security and Strategy, expressed hope “that the future of China-Europe relations can be more independent on both sides.”
“For Europe, that would mean shaping its China policy based on its own interests, rather than simply taking sides,” Sun told the German Marshall Fund in a podcast. “And for China, this means building a more independent and nuanced approach to Europe.”
“It is precisely because most European decision-makers realize the necessity of strategic autonomy that they have made it clear that they must strengthen cooperation with China,” said Yan Xuetong, dean of the Institute of International Relations at Tsinghua University, to The Paper, a Shanghai-based news site.
“Even if China and Europe have differences on the Ukraine issue, there is still room for expanding cooperation in areas beyond the differences.”
Obstacles in EU-China ties
China’s strengthening ties with historic European allies like Hungary and Greece stand alongside broader concerns about its human rights record, espionage, trade practices, military buildup and support for Russia.
European police arrested employees of Chinese tech giant Huawei during a bribery probe in Brussels. Czech intelligence has claimed Beijing directed cyberattacks on its critical infrastructure. And the EU’s criticisms of China’s human rights violations remain consistent.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has further alienated Europe from China. Despite Beijing’s claims of neutrality, Europe largely views China as complicit or indirectly supporting Russia’s war machine.
The EU recently cancelled a high-level economic and trade dialogue with China due to a lack of progress on trade issues. It has also moved to restrict Chinese participation in EU medical procurement.
U.S. warns Europe not to get closer to China
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently called out Spain for courting China, warning that aligning too closely with Beijing would be “cutting their own throat,” as Chinese exporters look for alternative markets amid U.S. restrictions.
By decoupling their approaches to China, analysts say both Brussels and Washington weaken their positions. That could hurt the U.S., which has pledged to outcompete China but likely needs support from allies.
“If we could just get Japan and the EU and the U.S. together on any issue, … we could outweigh the Chinese at the negotiating table,” said Nick Burns, the U.S. ambassador to China under the Biden administration. “President Trump, I think, because of his inattention to our allies and maybe even worse, his sometimes just acrimonious behaviours towards allies, has given away that leverage.”
Joerg Wuttke, former president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China and now a partner at DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group in Washington, said the fundamentals of EU-China relations haven’t changed as long as China avoids real market reforms.
“The EU remains geared towards the U.S.,” Wuttke said, describing Washington as “a major backdrop noise.”
“We are not allies. We are trading partners,” he added. “So from my point of view, what is there to worry for the United States?”