This week will see five provinces bringing down their budgets. The only Canadian economic data is the report on January gross domestic product, due Wednesday. In the U.S., Friday’s jobs report will be the focus.

RBC Financial says that for Canada, the week’s key release is the monthly GDP report for January. “Despite the strong resurgence in retail spending, GDP is likely to only see a flat outcome given the downward offsetting influence of trade activity and wholesaling during the month. But the important thing to note is that, with consumers seemingly back in the game, the direction for GDP growth looks positive,” it says.

BMO Nesbitt Burns says that the GDP report will be important to the financial markets’ consensus view that the Bank of Canada will trim rates again on April 13. “A key reason most believe the Bank will move again next month is that growth appears to have stumbled out of the starting gate in 2004. That theory will be put to the test by the GDP report for January,” it says. Nesbitt expects a modest gain of 0.1% for GDP in the month. “This is broadly in line with the Bank’s view of potential growth, although officials were hoping for something more.”

On the provincial front, four budgets will be released on March 30. “Quebec will be the headline act, supported by New Brunswick, Newfoundland & Labrador, and PEI. Saskatchewan will unveil its fiscal plan the next day,” says Nesbitt. “Quebec has been struggling mightily to keep its finances balanced, and that will be the major focus on Tuesday. “

“Not much in any of this to move markets, so all eyes will be on the U.S. data flow,” argues CIBC World Markets. Down south, this week’s big reports include the ISM manufacturing survey for March and, which is out on Thursday, followed by the jobs report on Friday. “Recent indicators, most notably the claims data, continue to point towards a strong pop in job growth,” offers RBC.

CIBC says, “Expectations for job gains are now low enough that we could get a modest job gain that still tops consensus and hits bonds, if only temporarily. Other data won’t be too encouraging, as we expect no improvement in confidence and a slightly less ebullient reading from factory purchasing managers.”

Nesbitt says that it still thinks there is a pop in jobs due soon. “But, like other forecasters, we’ve been beaten down by the failure of the official data to live up to expectations generated by increasingly vigorous leading employment indicators.” It says that the consensus forecast for headline payrolls is a cautious +110,000. “We believe +175,000 is a reasonable estimate, and whisper numbers even higher than that might rattle markets this week. The stage does seem set for an employment pop. Corporate profits have been extraordinarily strong and this always has sparked a desire to expand in past cycles.”

Light earnings schedule

The earnings schedule isn’t much to get excited about week. Premium Brands Inc. and Miramar Mining Corporation report on Monday. Compton Petroleum Corporation is out on Tuesday.

Wednesday brings news from AGF Management, ATI Technologies and Richelieu Hardware Ltd.

Thursday is a dud, but Power Corp., Power Financial and Shaw Communications Inc. are all on deck for Friday.