TD Bank economists say that a 25 basis point rate hike from the Bank of Canada next week is a sure thing.

Additional hikes might start coming bigger and faster through the summer.

The bank says that the current super-stimulative monetary conditions are simply not sustainable amid evidence that the Canadian economy had a weak downturn and is poised for strong growth this year and next. “Next week’s decision is nothing short of a done deal,” it says. But the question is what comes after that?

TD forecasts another 125 bps in rate hikes this year, coming in 25 bps increments, followed by another 125 bps in 2003. “However, based on recent evidence, it now appears that the balance of risks are skewed towards an even faster pace of tightening by the central bank. In other words, rather than the steady string of 25 bps hikes that we expect at each of this year’s fixed announcement dates, one — or several — 50 bps moves cannot be ruled out.”

The Bank’s goal should be to have policy sitting at a neutral position by the time excess capacity in the economy has been consumed, TD says. And, it warns that there’s little weighing against increasing inflation at this point. While a stronger dollar will certainly help the Bank stay on a moderate rate-hiking track, TD says that it may have to pick up the pace later this year.