There’s a steady flow of economic data due in the coming week, but many traders seem to have switched off their screens for the year, and are looking forward to winter holidays.

In Canada, November’s leading indicator is due out on Monday. Manufacturing shipments are out on Tuesday. Thursday brings international securities transactions, and on Friday the CPI will be reported.

CIBC World Markets says that Canada might be headed for the same exchange rate hit to manufacturing shipments that we saw in exports. “The consensus forecast looks too high in light of the downside surprise to exports reported this past week, but real manufacturing shipments likely saw a much more modest correction.”

“After the massive rebounds in September from black-out depressed levels, we look for both shipments and orders to pull back again in October,” agrees BMO Nesbitt Burns. It is calling for a 3% drop in shipments, well below the consensus expectations of a modest gain. “Even with the significant upturn in U.S. growth, manufacturing will be hard-pressed to register solid growth in an environment of a sky-high loonie and lacklustre auto production.”

CIBC says that the strong dollar is also going to help keep a damper on the CPI trend by keeping import prices in check, “taking us even further below the midpoint of the Bank of Canada’s target range, and setting up the case for rate cuts next year.”

Nesbitt agrees on this count too, saying that headline and core rates should both fall. But, it says, “The big declines in the core rate, fully expected by the Bank of Canada and the consensus, will unfold in the January and February reports.”

In the U.S., the CPI is out on Tuesday, as are industrial production numbers. Thursday brings the leading indicator, and on Friday the Philly Fed index is released.

Nesbitt says that the CPI report is the only one that may garner some interest. “It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas on the trading floors of North America. So, disinterest in the data flow is rampant and not much reaction can be expected to the coming week’s numbers,” it says, although November CPI is a potential exception. “While the FOMC obviously is not expecting to wait until 2005 before inflation ticks up, the December Fed statement made it clear that the FOMC is waiting to see the whites of the eyes of a coming inflation acceleration before pulling the trigger on a tightening step. That makes every CPI report a potential land mine.”

“PPI for November was relatively dovish, however, and we see little that suggests a price explosion is in the works for the that month’s CPI, which is expected to rise just 0.1%,” Nesbitt says. “That said, the Fed has hinted that it is looking at CPI on a higher frequency than the usual 12-month basis.”

CIBC is sticking with the consensus view, saying that U.S. CPI will be flat, and “will be a bullish reminder for fixed income markets on just how far we are from that turning point.”

However, it says that rising factory hours leave room for an upside surprise in the industrial production report for November. “The third quarter saw a relief from the deteriorating trend in the current account deficit, but the US dollar won’t get much solace from that given that net trade appears to be turning the other direction again in Q4.” Nesbitt agrees that the ISM survey and factory hours worked point to the best industrial production report in a long while.

On the earnings front, NHC Communications and Oracle report on Monday. Wednesday brings news from Cognos and Patheon in Canada, with Lehman also reporting in the U.S.

On Thursday, Com Dev reports, as does Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. On Friday, ATI Technologies releases results.