It wasn’t quite the decisive victory markets had hoped for from Tuesday’s presidential vote, but it was close enough. U.S. markets shot out of the gate to triple-digit gains Wednesday morning as President George W. Bush’s lead in the key state of Ohio all but assured a victory, a sign to investors that it will be business as usual. About 90 minutes later, markets got the final word as Democrat contender John Kerry called Bush to concede defeat, ending any prospects of a drawn-out decision.
By midday, the Dow had settled back to a gain of 122.56 points or 1.22% to 10158.29 after opening at 10206. The Nasdaq passed the 2000 level, advancing 22.52 points or 1.13% to 2007.31 and the S&P 500 was ahead 13.66 points or 1.21% at 1144.24. Toronto markets were also caught up in the election mood to some extent. The S&P/TSX jumped 26.83 or 0.30% to 8897.77, while the TSX Venture Exchange was up 2.46 points or 0.15% to 1600.07.
The Canadian dollar also enjoyed a big gain as the U.S. dollar sold off against other currencies, surging 0.86 of a cent to US82.54¢.
Kerry ended his quest, for the White House with a call to the president around 11 a.m.
Markets had been dragged down by nervousness that the election would end up by being settled in the courts and investors also took as good news another Republican victory. Bush has been perceived as the friendlier candidate for the markets.
In Toronto, the TSX was helped by gold and financial stocks, up 0.95% and 0.41% respectively. Gold prices were up Wednesday morning, gaining $260 to US$423.40 in late London fixing.
Financial stocks may have been aided by the election results — Bush’s apparent win is seen by investors and analysts as a boon to some brokerages and banks. The Big Five banks were all up in active trading. Meanwhile, Kingsway Financial Services Inc. was ahead 8.55% after announcing a 96% jump in third-quiatrer profit late Tuesday. Canaccord Capital Inc. was down 1.7% after it announced a 29% drop in second-quarter net income.
The TSX’s energy group was ahead 0.34% even as oil futures prices fell below US$49 a barrel early Wednesday after a U.S. government report showed U.S. supplies of crude rising sharply for the second week in a row, while inventories of distillate fuel, which includes heating oil, continued to shrink.
In New York, Pfizer was the biggest percentage gainer, climbing 4.5% as analysts viewed a likely Bush victory as a positive factor for the industry. Fellow drug makers and Dow components Merck and Johnson & Johnson were up 2.5% and 3% respectively. Among other notable gainers, Altria was up 2% and Boeing rose 3.1%.
The AMEX Securities Broker/Dealer Index added 2%, the Philadelphia Bank Sector Index added 1% and the S&P Insurance Index rose 1.2%. Among the financial stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Citigroup shares rose 1.36%. J.P. Morgan Chase jumped 2% and American Express added 1.4%. AIG shares rose 1%.
Overseas, shares rallied across Asia as investors reacted with relief at the end of the U.S. presidential campaign.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbed 88.93 points, or 0.7% to 13,397.67. In Tokyo, the region’s biggest stock market was closed for Culture Day, a national holiday. London’s FTSE 100 index advanced 24.9 points to 4,718.1. Frankfurt’s DAX 30 rose 0.5% while the Paris CAC 40 was up 0.42%.
Meanwhile, investment strategists wondered whether stocks can break out of their current trading range and start a new “bull market.”
A historical perspective of the market’s performance on the first day of trading following a presidential election offers a mixed picture. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has ended higher on the session after only two of the past six presidential races, according to data compiled by Dow Jones Indexes and Wilshire Associates.
Once the election dust has settled however, the Dow’s performance takes a turn for the better. A month later, the benchmark index was posting gains after four of the last six presidential elections.