This week promises to be a light one for Canadian economic data, but there will be an important throne speech from Ottawa. Stateside, the coming week brings the release of some key U.S. data.

In Canada, GDP figures for July are due on Monday. CIBC World Markets is expecting to see a modest gain in the numbers. BMO Nesbitt Burns agrees, noting that growth is expected to move up to 0.3%.

The bigger news will likely be Monday’s throne speech. “The government is expected to set out a five-year plan, concentrating on social programs. The measures are anticipated to deal with child poverty, aboriginal issues and urban development,” says BMO. “However, with the government’s financial position under pressure from weak tax revenues, it is uncertain how they will fund new spending initiatives.”

CIBC says that the federal Liberals will unveil what might look like a costly set of “legacy” proposals, “but the Finance Minister has to this point suggested that near-term budgets for these items will be kept in line with what’s coming in on the revenue side. Odds are, the Liberals will continue to aim at modest surpluses in the remainder of this Prime Minister’s term.”

After that, the Help-wanted index is slated for Wednesday, with foreign reserve numbers coming on Thursday.

The U.S. schedule is busier, with the Chicago purchasing managers index on Monday, the Institute of Supply Management index and construction spending on Tuesday. Factory orders are due Thursday and rounding out the week, September’s employment report will be released on Friday.

TD Bank says that the upcoming reports that will have the greatest impact on the Fed’s thinking. “The ISM manufacturing report for September will be released on Tuesday, with the consensus being for a slim increase in the index, which would signal continued stagnation in the manufacturing sector. Friday’s employment report has a more significant chance of shifting perceptions of the economy, with financial markets currently expecting to see a mere 15,000 added to non-farm payrolls and a two-tenths of a percentage point increase in the unemployment rate to 5.9% in September.”

BMO expects a weak payroll report. “Most importantly, the four-week moving average of initial jobless claims leapt by 30,000 between survey weeks in August and September, and continuing jobless claims rose by 114,000 over the same period. The ISM employment component remains firmly below the 50 level and the help-wanted index sunk sharply again in August.”

BMO warns that a dip below the 50 mark on the ISM index would “stoke double-dip talk”.

CIBC says that the equity markets will remain volatile as earnings warnings season remains in full swing. “On the data front, we look for softness in the U.S. economy in September to be confirmed in both purchasing managers and employment reports, while the personal income and consumption report will still be back in the warmer days of August figures. As always, the payrolls data is likely to have a major impact in setting the tone for the balance of the month if it manages to surprise in either direction.”