After a week where the central bankers on both side of the border laid out their cards, traders will be focused on the avalanche of earnings reports this week.
RBC Financial says that it will be a relatively quiet data week for data in Canada. “Monday will see the release of May’s retail sales figures. May CPI numbers will be out on Tuesday. We continue to expect some unwinding of the transitory forces that drove prices higher earlier in the year,” it says.
Wednesday’s releases include investment intentions and the leading indicator for June.
“Although factories and tourism were still struggling in May, the rest of the economy appears to have recovered some of the ground lost in April’s GDP decline. Retail sales will feature that bounce-back in May data due this week, mostly from auto sales,” comments CIBC World Markets.
BMO Nesbitt Burns says that rebounding auto sales “should help push overall retail activity back into positive territory in the month after declines in both March and April. However, non-auto sales are still expected to be relatively lacklustre.”
On the inflation front, CIBC says that the core CPI likely to hold steady in June, with the headline figure easing off two ticks to 2.7%.”
Nesbitt expects the annual trend in core inflation to remain stable at 2.3%. It says that, “Plenty of focus will be on auto insurance premiums — they have ticked lower in the past two months, cutting the annual increase to 23% from over 30% earlier this year. It appears that this particular storm has passed.”
There are only a few economic releases due out in the U.S. this week, but RBC says they are important nonetheless. “As usual, Thursday’s weekly initial claims data will be carefully scrutinized for signs that an improvement in the U.S. job market might be around the corner,” it predicts.
“On Friday, June’s durable orders will be released, along with new and existing home sales.” Also, the U.S. leading indicator is out on Monday.
CIBC says that it believes earnings will overshadow economics. Still, it says, “With various surveys and industrial production reports pointing to a better tone in manufacturing, we’re expecting a bit of an upside surprise for durable orders.”
Nesbitt says that it expects to see strong U.S. data this week. “The stars seem to have moved into alignment for a nice pop in June durable goods orders,” it offers. “We anticipate an increase in the 2% range, with a decent ex transportation gain providing a solid foundation for third quarter growth.”
Leaving aside the economics, there is a heavy slate of companies reporting this week. Monday leads off with news from Falconbridge, Hummingbird, Sanmina-SCI and TimberWest.
Alcan reports on Tuesday, along with BCE Emergis, Canadian National Railway, Fording, Inco, Meridian Gold and Stelco.
On Wednesday, Abitibi-Consolidated reports, as does Astral Media, Canadian Pacific Railway, CHUM, Dofasco, EDS, Goldcorp, Imperial Oil, IPSCO, Slocan and Teck Cominco.
Aliant, Cara Operations, Celestica, Corus Entertainment, Flextronics, George Weston, Husky, Inmet, Macdonald, Dettwiler and Associates, Manitoba Telecom Services, Manulife Financial, Molson, Nexfor, Nortel, Quebecor World, Russel Metals, and Tembec Inc. all report on Thursday.
Even Friday promises earnings news from heavy hitters Barrick Gold, Finning International, Noranda and Richmont Mines.