The possibility of Greece leaving the euro area is on the table once again. Moody’s Investors Service says that contagion risks for the rest of Europe are lower than they were back in 2012, but such a move would still hurt.
In a new report, Moody’s says that renewed political turmoil in Greece and forthcoming elections have increased the risk of a Greek exit from the euro area. Parliamentary elections in the country are slated for Jan. 25, “which has rekindled concerns around a possible Greek exit from the single currency given the lead that anti-austerity party Syriza has in the polls,” it says.
The rating agency says that a Greek exit remains relatively unlikely, and is still lower than it was during the peak of the crisis in 2012. Moreover, it says that contagion risks are “materially lower” than they were at the peak of the crisis. Among other things, it points out that there are weaker cross-border links between European banks today than there were back in 2012. There’s also been a significant reduction of European banks’ holdings of Greek government debt. And, it says that the structural reforms undertaken by several European countries have made them more resilient.
That said, the risk of a Greek exit could have negative credit implications for other members of the currency, it says. “Any exit from the single currency would be a defining moment for the euro: it would show that the monetary union is divisible, not irreversible,” said Colin Ellis, the report’s author and Moody’s chief credit officer for the region.
A Greek exit today would also likely trigger a renewed recession in the euro area, Moody’s says; yet, it also suggests that “the credit impact may be less pronounced than in 2012 because contagion risk from a Greek euro exit has materially declined and because policymakers now have stronger tools to limit the damage from such an event.”
For Greece, in an exit scenario, its economy “would probably suffer severe economic damage in the short term before the likely decline in any new Greek currency would aid the subsequent adjustment of its imbalances.”
“Over the longer term, economic growth in Greece following an exit could exceed that in remaining euro area countries — which, in turn, could trigger discussions around further euro exits,” adds Ellis.