Moody’s Investors Service reported that the global speculative-grade default rate edged down to 2% in April from 2.1% in March. It sees the rate rising over the next 12 months however.

The rating agency says that April’s decline in the default rate coincides with a long-anticipated cyclical low. “For some months, Moody’s default rate forecasting model indicated that the default rate would reach a bottom near the end of the first quarter or beginning of the second quarter 2005,” it notes.

Moody’s updated global speculative-grade default rate forecast predicts that the default rate will rise from its current 2% level to 2.5% by the end of 2005, reaching 3.3% by April 2006.