The global economy appears to be heading to a more stable growth path, says Moody’s Investors Service in its latest economic outlook.
In a new report, the rating agency says that, “after a sustained period of turbulence in economic and financial markets, the global economy now looks set for somewhat greater stability over the coming years.”
Moody’s notes that, since the onset of the financial crisis, significant progress has been made to address structural imbalances. And, it says that policymakers’ efforts to facilitate the necessary adjustments in the private sector have borne fruit.
Significant challenges remain, particularly for emerging economies, which are seeing a deterioration in their near-term growth prospects, Moody’s cautions. They are also facing longer-term concerns, it says, given that U.S. monetary policy must eventually been normalized. Nevertheless, Moody’s says that “the broad economic outlook now seems less uncertain than for some time.”
The rating agency says it continues to expect a relatively modest recovery in the G20 advanced economies, with real GDP growth of around 1.3% this year, accelerating to 2.0% in 2014, and 2.25% in 2015, which is largely unchanged from its previous report.
In the emerging economies, Moody’s forecasts for growth are somewhat weaker than they were three months ago. Overall, it now expects GDP growth in the major emerging markets of around 5% in 2013, before rising to 5.5% during the subsequent two years.
While the growth outlook itself isn’t much improved, Moody’s says it believes that the uncertainty around its forecasts have declined in recent months. Yet, the balance of risks to the global economy remains skewed to the downside, it says.
The continuing set of risks includes the eventual exit from monetary stimulus measures, particularly in the U.S.; the prospect of a return of the Euro area debt crisis, which could be triggered by a lack of progress in shoring up the banking sector and implementing institutional reforms; and, a shock to global asset markets, or the U.S. economy, arising from continued political gridlock.