Troubled global economies and tapped out domestic consumers will see the Canadian economy grow at 2.1% this year and next, finds the latest economic forecast from CIBC World Markets Inc.

“The global economy hasn’t fallen off a 2008-style cliff, but it’s been too close to the precipice for investor comfort,” says Avery Shenfeld, chief conomist at CIBC. “Some emerging markets are on the boundary of a hard landing, Europe is mired in recession, and the U.S. is moseying along on its half-speed recovery.”

CIBC’s call for 2012 world growth to 3%, its slowest pace since the recession.

Continued slowing of global economic growth will cause challenges for Canadian exports. “While a host of indicators continue to signal impressive economic momentum in resource-rich provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan, we expect a less voracious appetite for commodities in key emerging markets,” says Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC. “The associated pullback in commodity prices could, at the margin at least, mean less aggressive investment, job creation and ultimately GDP growth for Canada’s most resource-leveraged regions.”

The report notes that while in recent quarters, rising U.S. auto sales, energy price relief and a cheaper loonie have contributed to economic resilience in Ontario, the potential for a withdrawal of U.S. fiscal stimulus in 2013 could slow that growth, and further add to a deceleration in emerging market demand.

“That could dent job creation in Canada, as hiring has quickened recently on the bet that external demand will improve,” says Tal.

At the same time as Canadian exports are facing new headwinds, Tal notes that consumer demand in Canada is starting to wane.

“The cooling trend in Canada’s domestically-generated demand means that beyond the risk to exports from a U.S. slowdown and the on-again-off-again Eurozone crisis, the Bank of Canada has reasons to stand pat on rates,” adds Tal. “Economic growth in both 2012 and 2013 should fall short of the Bank of Canada’s expectations and it may have to wait for a U.S.-growth-induced pick-up in 2014 before it feels compelled to move from the sidelines.”