For a market that is still fairly uncertain about the direction of the economy, the coming week’s light slate of Canadian data releases won’t be much help. Traders will be paying closer attention to the fleshier U.S. calendar.
The one notable Canadian release is the October consumer price index on Wednesday. “We expect core inflation to hold steady at 1.7% during the month,” RBC Financial says.
BMO Nesbitt Burns says that headline CPI is projected to drop 0.2% in the month, with a big decline in gasoline prices leading the way. It sees headline inflation dropping to 1.6% from 2.2% in the prior month, with core inflation edging up 0.2% in the month. “If there is a surprise, it would likely be that headline inflation is even further below core inflation, with the strong loonie keeping a tight lid on imported goods prices,” it says.
There is also a speech by Bank of Canada governor, David Dodge on Monday, and international securities data coming on Tuesday.
CIBC World Markets says that Dodge’s speech “could provide a glimpse at how concerned the Bank is with the currency’s recent run-up.”
In the U.S. next week, there are a number of key releases including business inventories on Monday, October’s CPI report on Tuesday and housing starts on Wednesday. Thursday will see the release of weekly initial claims along with October’s leading indicator and the Philly Fed index.
“The U.S. has a full economic calendar next week. Three indicators for November that are normally second tier might get top billing since they will bear importantly on how much momentum is carrying over into Q4,” says Nesbitt. “The N.Y. and Philadelphia-area factory surveys are due and these two reports have proved important early indicators of the suddenly appearing strength in the economy. We anticipate that both will stay on the high side for November, although matching recent robust readings might be too much to expect.”
CIBC suggests that Monday’s Empire State index and Thursday’s Philly Fed will be monitored for signs that the factory sector is recovering, aided by inventory rebuilding. And, it says that October’s housing release could provide clues as to the housing market’s ability to weather recent mortgage rate hikes.
CIBC predicts that markets will be watching the CPI closely, after the PPI’s unpleasant surprise gain today. “The two indexes often vary on a monthly basis, so a more benign reading could well prove reassuring,” it says.
Nesbitt says that the CPI is expected to be up a tolerable 0.2%. “Details of the CPI might show that service prices are starting to pick up and that inflation has headed a bit higher over the most recent six-month span,” it says.
On the earnings front, several REITs report on Monday, along with AnorMed. Metro and Zenon Enviro report on Tuesday.
Laidlaw, Peyto Explorations and Trojan Tech are due on Wednesday.
Thursday brings Compton Petroleum, Mosaid, Penn West Petroleum, Resolute Energy, and Tundra Semi. Concert Industries is the lone firm reporting on Friday.