After a holiday week with little action, the Canadian economic data schedule revives this week. South of the border, the U.S. data flow slows to a trickle.

RBC Financial says that this week’s releases will be important. “Monday kicks off the week with building permits data for the month of May, and the Ivey purchasing managers’ index which is roughly the equivalent to the ISM manufacturing survey in the U.S.”

There are no data releases scheduled for Tuesday, but housing starts will be released on Wednesday, and the new house price index on Thursday.

“The most important release of the week comes out on Friday with the June Labour Force Survey, which will provide updates on employment trends and the unemployment rate. International trade data is also slated for release that day,” RBC notes.

Canadian international merchandise trade date for May is also scheduled to be released Friday.

CIBC World Markets agrees that Friday’s jobs report will be the most watched release. “A modest employment gain for June would undo only a fraction of the job cuts recently registered and fail to reverse any of the prior month’s surprise jump in joblessness,” it says.

BMO Nesbitt Burns advises that, as the last major economic release before the Bank of Canada decides on interest rates on July 15, the June jobs report has the potential to be a significant market mover.

“We look for yet another setback, as manufacturing and tourism grapple with the impact of a soaring loonie. As well, the June data will reflect the dual impact of the second SARS outbreak and the ban on Canadian beef exports due to mad cow fears, both of which developed in late May,” Nesbitt says. It predicts that payrolls likely declined by roughly 10,000, pushing the jobless rate up another tick to 7.9%.

“A big jump in the jobless rate and another drop in employment may just be enough to tip the Bank of Canada to trim rates in July. However, a more likely outcome is a mildly negative reading, which will keep the Bank in a mode of watching-and-waiting for the U.S. economy to perk up in the second half,” Nesbitt says.

TD Bank is a little more pessimistic, saying, “Barring a sharp rebound in jobs — which we see unlikely given recent evidence that the Canadian economy has begun to take it on the chin in part the result of the surge in the Canadian dollar this year — look for the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates by a quarter point on July 15th.”

As for the other data due out, CIBC predicts, “Elsewhere, readings on purchasing activity, housing starts and merchandise trade look to provide further colour to Q2’s substantial loss of economic momentum. Despite the recent growth stall, the economy will likely have to wait until September for any interest rate relief from the Bank of Canada.”

Nesbitt notes that it is looking for the trade surplus to drop to $3.8 billion in the month, one of the smallest surpluses in the past four years.

This week is relatively quiet in the U.S. Nothing is due out on Monday. There are a couple of minor releases on Tuesday. RBC notes that U.S. wholesale trade data is due out on Wednesday, followed by initial unemployment claims on Thursday, and producer prices and international trade on Friday.

CIBC says that Friday’s trade data and PPI are the only two items of note. “A slightly more tepid than consensus reading for the headline PPI will still leave the theme of goods sector deflation intact,” it says. CIBC also notes that Fed chairman Alan Greenspan talks on Thursday, but on natural gas prices, “suggesting minimal monetary policy content”.

Nesbitt is more optimistic, it says that it sees hints piling up suggesting that the U.S. economy is in the process of turning the corner toward a faster pace of growth. But not yet. “A routinely terrible trade deficit for May, due out this week, will underline the fragile and unbalanced nature of the expansion, however,” it warns.

CIBC says that with little data in the U.S., the market’s attention is likely to focus increasingly on the Q2 earnings numbers, “With Alcoa kicking things off for Dow members on Tuesday, followed by GE on Friday,” it says. Also, Teknion reports on Wednesday.