Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan will dominate market watchers’ attention in the early part of this week, and GDP numbers will hold sway at the end of the week. Bank earnings will also be a focus for many investors.

RBC Financial says that next week’s main data releases will be December retail sales on Thursday, and Q4 GDP data on Friday. Wholesale trade numbers for December are also out on Thursday.

CIBC World Markets says that December is shaping up to be a healthy month for the economy. “Anecdotal evidence suggests a reasonably good holiday season for non-auto retailers. Coupled with a solid month for manufacturing (already reported), and monthly GDP could be up a healthy 0.4%,” it says. “That would still leave quarterly GDP barely over 3%, and the second half of 2003 only running at 2% – a far cry from the 6% pace enjoyed stateside.”

BMO Nesbitt Burns says that GDP likely revived in the fourth quarter, although it suggests that one area of softness is likely to be consumer spending. “The expected rise in GDP will just fall short of the Bank of Canada’s latest estimate of about 4%, and is also just south of the initial report of a 4% pace in U.S. growth last quarter.” The monthly GDP reading for December will be released at the same time, and Nesbitt says that it is expected to show a moderate gain of 0.2%. “Retail sales and wholesale trade will be released the prior day, and will provide further guidance for the monthly GDP report on Friday.”

Nesbitt says that the current account surplus is expected to remain at healthy levels in Q4, narrowing only slightly to a $26 billion annual rate from just over $29 billion in Q3.

In the U.S. next week, Greenspan speaks on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday — events that are likely to capture some attention. Despite all the talk, CIBC says, “We doubt that markets will gain any further insights beyond his earlier, dovish testimony to Congress.”

Nesbitt says, “We believe he was satisfied with the degree of uncertainty that he created in recent policy testimony. Pundits are all over the place in their interpretation of what he meant, leaving the Fed entirely free of hard commitments to anything. Although we would never say never, it is not clear that he intends to add much to the policy debate in upcoming appearances.”

The first data release is set for Tuesday, when the Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence for February is reported. New home sales along with durable goods orders for January are released on Thursday, and fourth quarter GDP is out on Friday, along with the Chicago PMI and the Michigan consumer sentiment index.

CIBC says that January should see a decent gain for durable goods orders. “Too much media attention on nay-saying by Democratic presidential candidates should hold back consumer confidence readings, and weather could do the same thing for home sales. Add in a downward revision to Q4 GDP, and while these aren’t the easiest series to forecast, it looks like we have the makings of a good week for Treasuries, and a poor one for the U.S. dollar and cyclical equities.”

Nesbitt agrees that the consumer confidence survey will probably show a slump. It expects a dip in home sales figures, and GDP growth below 4% in Q4. “Someone is sure to say that sub-4% growth is too slow to take up the slack in the States, and that the Fed will, therefore, stay on hold forever, prompting another sly smile from that old Machiavellian manipulator at the Fed.”

On the earnings front, the start of reporting from the banks will be the highlight. Although, Monday leads off with Clearwater Seafoods Income Fund, Intier Automotive Inc., Placer Dome Inc. and Residential Equities REIT.

Bank of Montreal kicks off the bank earnings parade on Tuesday, joined by Esprit Exploration, Tesma International Inc. and George Weston.

Agnico-Eagle Mines, Canadian Natural Resources, Decoma International Inc., Dorel Industries Inc., Meridian Gold Inc. and RONA Inc. report on Wednesday.

CIBC, TD Bank, B2B Trust, Laurentian Bank and National Bank all report on Thursday, as does EnCana, Magna International Inc., Northgate Exploration, Persona Inc., Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers, and Stantec Inc.

Royal Bank reports on Friday, along with Four Seasons Hotels and Wajax Limited.